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Al Nasar v Al Tadhamon

Al Nasar

2–1Full time

Al Tadhamon

Premier League · SUN 18 OCT · Ali Al-Salem Al-Sabah Stadium

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 20:31

Al Nasar 2–1 Al Tadhamon AL NASAR WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Al Nasar win~~49%

~~The market said~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.393

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.374

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Al Nasar win at 49%.
0′KICK-OFF Al Nasar v Al Tadhamon
1′Much as we predicted: Al Nasar was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 49–26–26
13′Al Nasar find the net on 13′. 0–0 · 47–27–26
14′We published Al Nasar at 49%. Our model now makes it 74%. 1–0 · 74–16–10
14′⚽ GOAL · 13' Al Nasar 1–0 Al Tadhamon
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Al Nasar win: 49% at kick-off, 74% now
19′We published Al Nasar at 49%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–16–9
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.0 we expected. 1–0 · 75–17–8
37′Al Tadhamon score on 37′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 42–34–25
37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Al Nasar 1–1 Al Tadhamon
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Al Nasar win: 49% at kick-off, 42% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Al Nasar win: 49% at kick-off, 39% now
45′HALF-TIME Al Nasar 1–1 Al Tadhamon
45′SECOND HALF Al Nasar 1–1 Al Tadhamon
50′We said Al Nasar at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 37%. 1–1 · 37–40–23
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Al Nasar win 36%)
57′We said Al Nasar at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–44–21
66′We said Al Nasar at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–53–18
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Al Nasar win: 49% at kick-off, 29% now
72′We said Al Nasar at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–60–16
77′We said Al Nasar at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–68–13
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Al Nasar win: 49% at kick-off, 19% now
81′We said Al Nasar at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–76–10
85′Al Nasar find the net on 84′. 2–1. 2–1 · 94–6–0
85′⚽ GOAL · 84' Al Nasar 2–1 Al Tadhamon
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Al Nasar win: 49% at kick-off, 94% now
85′THE CALL SWINGS · 85' Al Nasar win is now our likeliest result at 94% (was Draw 6%)
86′We published Al Nasar at 49%. Our model now makes it 94%. 2–1 · 94–6–0
87′We published Al Nasar at 49%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
87′That is 3, and we only asked for 3.0 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 95–5–0
90′Full time, 2–1. We called Al Nasar at 49% — that one lands. 2–1 · 100–0–0
95′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+5' Al Nasar win: 49% at kick-off, 99% now
FTFULL TIME Al Nasar 2–1 Al Tadhamon
FTAl Nasar 2–1 Al Tadhamon · Al Nasar win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al Nasar are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al Nasar 49%, draw 26%, Al Tadhamon 26%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Al Nasar v Al TadhamonBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Al Nasar win49%

Draw26%

Al Tadhamon win26%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 17:55

RoundMatchday 5

VenueAli Al-Salem Al-Sabah Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al Nasar

Al Tadhamon

9Days since last match8

Last match: 9 Oct · Premier League (Kuwait)

Last match: 10 Oct · Premier League (Kuwait)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Al Nasar	4	−7	6
12	Al Tadhamon	4	−9	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al nasar winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

49% The market50%

Us49%

~~Market~~50%

We make Al Nasar a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.8–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al Nasar v Al Tadhamon~~1.75 – 1.21

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 26 Aug~~W2 D0 L2 · W0 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 6 v 0~~7 v 12

~~The market · Al Nasar win~~50% · ours 49%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Al Nasar win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 50% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al Nasar win	49%	50%	−1
Draw	26%	26%	0
Al Tadhamon win	26%	24%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	57%	53%	+4
Both teams to score	58%	55%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	80%	76%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	35%	33%	+2
Al Nasar or draw	74%	76%	−2
Al Nasar clean sheet	30%	–	–
Al Tadhamon clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%

0123450 6.5 5.3 3.9 1 8.0 11.9 6.5 2.7 2 7.9 9.3 5.6 2.3 3 4.6 5.5 3.3 4 2.1 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al Nasar down, Al Tadhamon across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 600 Premier League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.8% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.30 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Al Nasar at home: 1.67 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Al Tadhamon away: 1.17 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.75 goals for Al Nasar, 1.21 for Al Tadhamon. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.30

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ALT 1–1 ALN · ALT 1–3 ALN · ALT 0–4 ALN · ALN 0–1 ALT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 26 Aug

AL NASAR

WWLL2–1 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 1–7

AL TADHAMON

LLLL1–3 · 0–2 · 1–4 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al Kuwait	4	+8	10
2	Al Qadsia	4	+5	9
3	Kazma	4	+3	8
4	Al Shabab	4	+2	7
5	Al Fahaheel	4	+5	6
6	Al Salmiyah	4	0	6
7	Al Nasar	4	−7	6
8	Al Jahra	4	−1	4
9	Al Sahel	4	−4	4
10	Al Arabi	4	−1	3
11	Al Sulaibikhat	4	−1	3
12	Al Tadhamon	4	−9	0