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Model 1.1
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Al Nasar v Al Kuwait

Al Nasar
1–7Full time
Al Kuwait

Premier League · FRI 9 OCT · Ali Al-Salem Al-Sabah Stadium

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 18:32
Al Nasar 1–7 Al Kuwait AL KUWAIT WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–2 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Al Kuwait win69%
The market said65%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.150
The market’s Brier score0.189

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Al Nasar win12%
Draw19%
Al Kuwait win69%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 15:50

Venue · Ali Al-Salem Al-Sabah Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al kuwait winPublished 9 Oct 15:51
69% The market65%
Us69%
Market65%

We make Al Kuwait a 69% chance to win. The market has them at 65%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–2.3.

How the number movedSince we published
60%65%70% 9 OCT 06:199 OCT 13:08
Our probability · al kuwait win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 66% to 65% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Al Nasar win12%14%−2
Draw19%21%−2
Al Kuwait win69%65%+4
Over 2.5 goals61%54%+7
Both teams to score52%48%+4
Over 1.5 goals83%76%+7
Over 3.5 goals39%34%+6
Al Nasar or draw31%35%−4
Al Nasar clean sheet10%––
Al Kuwait clean sheet43%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 11.1%
0123450 5.2 9.1 11.1 8.5 5.0 2.41 3.0 9.0 9.3 7.1 4.1 2 3.6 4.0 3.1 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Al Nasar down, Al Kuwait across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

12 meetings since 2021
Goals a meeting4.00
Over 2.58 of 12
Both scored7 of 12
Last meetingsALN 1–1 ALK · ALK 1–0 ALN · ALK 6–0 ALN · ALN 1–5 ALK

Form · last six in Premier League

AL NASAR

WDDWWL3–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 0–3

AL KUWAIT

WDDDWW3–2 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 3–3 · 1–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Kazma3+37
2Al Kuwait3+27
3Al Qadsia3+36
4Al Salmiyah3+26
5Al Nasar3−16
6Al Shabab304
7Al Sahel304
8Al Fahaheel3+13
9Al Jahra3−13
10Al Arabi3−12
11Al Sulaibikhat3−12
12Al Tadhamon3−70

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.