Al Kuwait v Al Sulaibikhat prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 18:30

Al Kuwait 7–0 Al Sulaibikhat AL KUWAIT WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Al Kuwait win~~80%

~~The market said~~78%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.063

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.077

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Al Kuwait win at 80%.
1′Much as we predicted: Al Kuwait was 80% before kick-off and our model makes it 80% now. 0–0 · 80–14–7
1′KICK-OFF Al Kuwait v Al Sulaibikhat
12′Al Kuwait find the net on 12′. 1–0. 1–0 · 92–5–2
12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Al Kuwait 1–0 Al Sulaibikhat
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' Al Kuwait win: 80% at kick-off, 92% now
13′We published Al Kuwait at 80%. Our model now makes it 92%. 1–0 · 92–6–2
20′A goal for Al Kuwait on 20′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
20′⚽ GOAL · 20' Al Kuwait 2–0 Al Sulaibikhat
21′We published Al Kuwait at 80%. Our model now makes it 98%. 2–0 · 98–2–0
22′Al Kuwait score on 22′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Al Kuwait 3–0 Al Sulaibikhat
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Al Kuwait win: 80% at kick-off, over 99% now
23′We published Al Kuwait at 80%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
30′Al Kuwait find the net on 30′. 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
30′4 goals already, more than the 3.8 we expected for the whole match. 4–0 · 100–0–0
30′⚽ GOAL · 30' Al Kuwait 4–0 Al Sulaibikhat
45′HALF-TIME Al Kuwait 4–0 Al Sulaibikhat
46′SECOND HALF Al Kuwait 4–0 Al Sulaibikhat
49′A goal for Al Kuwait on 49′ — 5–0. 5–0 · 100–0–0
49′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.8 across ninety minutes. 5–0 · 100–0–0
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Al Kuwait 5–0 Al Sulaibikhat
73′Al Kuwait score on 73′ to make it 6–0. 6–0 · 100–0–0
73′6 goals already, more than the 3.8 we expected for the whole match. 6–0 · 100–0–0
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Al Kuwait 6–0 Al Sulaibikhat
89′Al Kuwait find the net on 89′. 7–0. 7–0 · 100–0–0
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Al Kuwait 7–0 Al Sulaibikhat
90′That is 7, and we only asked for 3.8 across ninety minutes. 7–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Al Kuwait 7–0 Al Sulaibikhat
FTAl Kuwait 7–0 Al Sulaibikhat · Al Kuwait win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al Kuwait are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al Kuwait 80%, draw 13%, Al Sulaibikhat 7%. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Al Kuwait v Al SulaibikhatBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Al Kuwait win80%

Draw13%

Al Sulaibikhat win7%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 15:40

RoundMatchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al Kuwait

Al Sulaibikhat

5Days since last match8

Last match: 14 Oct · AFC Champions League Two

Last match: 11 Oct · Premier League (Kuwait)

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al kuwait winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

80% The market78%

Us80%

~~Market~~78%

We make Al Kuwait an 80% chance to win. The market has them at 78%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 3.0–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al Kuwait v Al Sulaibikhat~~3.02 – 0.73

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 25 Aug~~W3 D1 L0 · W0 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 10 v 3~~1 v 11

~~The market · Al Kuwait win~~78% · ours 80%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Al Kuwait win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 78% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al Kuwait win	80%	78%	+2
Draw	13%	14%	−1
Al Sulaibikhat win	7%	8%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	71%	63%	+8
Both teams to score	49%	42%	+7
Over 1.5 goals	88%	81%	+7
Over 3.5 goals	50%	44%	+6
Al Kuwait or draw	93%	92%	+1
Al Kuwait clean sheet	49%	–	–
Al Sulaibikhat clean sheet	6%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.5%

0123450 3.4 1 7.0 6.2 2.2 2 10.5 7.6 2.9 3 10.0 7.1 2.7 4 7.6 5.2 5 4.8 3.2

under 2% 5% 12%+Al Kuwait down, Al Sulaibikhat across0–5 goals a side shown (89.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 602 Premier League matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.8% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Al Kuwait at home: 2.17 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Al Sulaibikhat away: 1.50 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

3.02 goals for Al Kuwait, 0.73 for Al Sulaibikhat. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 25 Aug

AL KUWAIT

DWWW3–3 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 7–1

AL SULAIBIKHAT

LDDD0–1 · 1–1 · 3–3 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al Kuwait	4	+8	10
2	Al Fahaheel	5	+7	9
3	Al Qadsia	4	+5	9
4	Al Nasar	5	−6	9
5	Kazma	4	+3	8
6	Al Shabab	5	0	7
7	Al Salmiyah	4	0	6
8	Al Jahra	4	−1	4
9	Al Sahel	4	−4	4
10	Al Arabi	4	−1	3
11	Al Sulaibikhat	4	−1	3
12	Al Tadhamon	5	−10	0