Al Fahaheel v Al Shabab prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:32

Al Fahaheel 2–0 Al Shabab AL FAHAHEEL WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Al Fahaheel win~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.302

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Al Fahaheel win at 55%.
1′Much as we predicted: Al Fahaheel was 55% before kick-off and our model makes it 55% now. 0–0 · 55–24–21
1′KICK-OFF Al Fahaheel v Al Shabab
14′Al Fahaheel find the net on 13′. 0–0 · 53–26–21
14′We published Al Fahaheel at 55%. Our model now makes it 79%. 1–0 · 79–14–8
14′⚽ GOAL · 13' Al Fahaheel 1–0 Al Shabab
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Al Fahaheel win: 55% at kick-off, 79% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.1 we expected. 1–0 · 79–15–7
45′HALF-TIME Al Fahaheel 1–0 Al Shabab
45′SECOND HALF Al Fahaheel 1–0 Al Shabab
46′We published Al Fahaheel at 55%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–15–5
70′We published Al Fahaheel at 55%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Al Fahaheel win: 55% at kick-off, 85% now
72′Al Fahaheel find the net on 72′. 2–0. 2–0 · 98–1–0
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Al Fahaheel 2–0 Al Shabab
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' Al Fahaheel win: 55% at kick-off, 98% now
73′We published Al Fahaheel at 55%. Our model now makes it 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
82′We published Al Fahaheel at 55%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
90′Full time, 2–0. We called Al Fahaheel at 55% — that one lands. 2–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Al Fahaheel 2–0 Al Shabab
FTAl Fahaheel 2–0 Al Shabab · Al Fahaheel win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al Fahaheel are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al Fahaheel 55%, draw 24%, Al Shabab 21%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Al Fahaheel v Al ShababBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Al Fahaheel win55%

Draw24%

Al Shabab win21%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 15:40

RoundMatchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al Fahaheel

Al Shabab

7Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · Premier League (Kuwait)

Last match: 10 Oct · Premier League (Kuwait)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Al Shabab	4	+2	7
5	Al Fahaheel	4	+5	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al fahaheel winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

55% The market–

Us55%

We make Al Fahaheel a 55% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al Fahaheel v Al Shabab~~1.95 – 1.13

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 25 Aug~~W2 D0 L2 · W2 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 6 v 7~~5 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al Fahaheel win	55%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Al Shabab win	21%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	59%	–	–
Both teams to score	58%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	37%	–	–
Al Fahaheel or draw	79%	–	–
Al Fahaheel clean sheet	33%	–	–
Al Shabab clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.9%

0123450 5.9 4.3 3.0 1 8.1 10.9 5.6 2.2 2 8.7 9.5 5.4 2.1 3 5.7 6.1 3.4 4 2.9 3.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al Fahaheel down, Al Shabab across0–5 goals a side shown (98.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 600 Premier League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.8% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.78 goals a meeting; 3 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Al Fahaheel at home: 1.00 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Al Shabab away: 1.33 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.95 goals for Al Fahaheel, 1.13 for Al Shabab. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.78

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 9

~~Both scored~~6 of 9

~~Last meetings~~ALF 3–2 ALS · ALS 1–1 ALF · ALF 0–1 ALS · ALF 2–0 ALS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 25 Aug

AL FAHAHEEL

LLWW1–2 · 1–2 · 4–1 · 4–0

AL SHABAB

WDLW3–2 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al Kuwait	4	+8	10
2	Al Qadsia	4	+5	9
3	Kazma	4	+3	8
4	Al Shabab	4	+2	7
5	Al Fahaheel	4	+5	6
6	Al Salmiyah	4	0	6
7	Al Nasar	4	−7	6
8	Al Jahra	4	−1	4
9	Al Sahel	4	−4	4
10	Al Arabi	4	−1	3
11	Al Sulaibikhat	4	−1	3
12	Al Tadhamon	4	−9	0