Al Arabi v Al Salmiyah prediction · Premier League

AI match analysis

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Pitchside prediction · postponed

Al Arabi are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al Arabi 51%, draw 27%, Al Salmiyah 21%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Al Arabi v Al SalmiyahBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · postponed, not graded

Al Arabi win51%

Draw27%

Al Salmiyah win21%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 18:45

RoundMatchday 5

VenueSabah Al Salem Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al Arabi

Al Salmiyah

8Days since last match7

Last match: 9 Oct · Premier League (Kuwait)

Last match: 10 Oct · Premier League (Kuwait)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Al Salmiyah	4	0	6
10	Al Arabi	4	−1	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al arabi winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · postponed, not graded

51% The market–

Us51%

We make Al Arabi a 51% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al Arabi v Al Salmiyah~~1.62 – 0.96

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 25 Aug~~W0 D3 L1 · W2 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 3 v 6~~10 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al Arabi win	51%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Al Salmiyah win	21%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	47%	–	–
Both teams to score	50%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	26%	–	–
Al Arabi or draw	79%	–	–
Al Arabi clean sheet	39%	–	–
Al Salmiyah clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 9.0 6.2 3.5 1 11.2 12.7 5.6 2 9.9 9.3 4.5 3 5.4 5.0 2.4 4 2.2 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al Arabi down, Al Salmiyah across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 600 Premier League matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.8% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.30 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Al Arabi at home: 1.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Al Salmiyah away: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.62 goals for Al Arabi, 0.96 for Al Salmiyah. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.30

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ALS 1–0 ALA · ALS 1–0 ALA · ALA 3–1 ALS · ALA 1–0 ALS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 25 Aug

AL ARABI

DLDD3–3 · 1–2 · 3–3 · 1–1

AL SALMIYAH

LWWL1–2 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al Kuwait	4	+8	10
2	Al Qadsia	4	+5	9
3	Kazma	4	+3	8
4	Al Shabab	4	+2	7
5	Al Fahaheel	4	+5	6
6	Al Salmiyah	4	0	6
7	Al Nasar	4	−7	6
8	Al Jahra	4	−1	4
9	Al Sahel	4	0	4
10	Al Arabi	4	−1	3
11	Al Sulaibikhat	4	−1	3
12	Al Tadhamon	4	−9	0