Al Arabi v Al Fahaheel prediction · Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Al ArabiDrawAl Fahaheel

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Al Arabi 61%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al Arabi are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al Arabi 61%, draw 22%, Al Fahaheel 17%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Al Arabi v Al FahaheelBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Al Arabi win61%

Draw22%

Al Fahaheel win17%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 14:30

RoundMatchday 6

VenueSabah Al Salem Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al Arabi

Al Fahaheel

5Days since last match10

Last match: 23 Oct · AFC Challenge League

Last match: 18 Oct · Premier League (Kuwait)

3Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Al Fahaheel	5	+7	9
10	Al Arabi	4	−1	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al arabi winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

61% The market–

Us61%

We make Al Arabi a 61% chance to win. The model expects 2.1–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al Arabi v Al Fahaheel~~2.09 – 1.01

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 25 Aug~~W0 D3 L1 · W3 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 3 v 9~~10 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al Arabi win	61%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Al Fahaheel win	17%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	59%	–	–
Both teams to score	56%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	37%	–	–
Al Arabi or draw	83%	–	–
Al Arabi clean sheet	37%	–	–
Al Fahaheel clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.2%

0123450 5.6 3.9 2.4 1 8.7 10.2 4.8 2 9.7 9.6 4.9 3 6.8 6.7 3.4 4 3.6 3.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al Arabi down, Al Fahaheel across0–5 goals a side shown (97.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 608 Premier League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.2% of games this season, across 32 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.60 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Al Arabi at home: 1.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Al Fahaheel away: 1.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.09 goals for Al Arabi, 1.01 for Al Fahaheel. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.60

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ALA 3–0 ALF · ALA 2–0 ALF · ALA 1–1 ALF · ALF 0–3 ALA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 25 Aug

AL ARABI

DLDD3–3 · 1–2 · 3–3 · 1–1

AL FAHAHEEL

LLWWW1–2 · 1–2 · 4–1 · 4–0 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al Kuwait	6	+19	16
2	Kazma	6	+5	14
3	Al Nasar	6	−3	12
4	Al Fahaheel	5	+7	9
5	Al Qadsia	4	+5	9
6	Al Salmiyah	5	+1	9
7	Al Shabab	5	0	7
8	Al Jahra	6	−3	4
9	Al Sahel	5	−7	4
10	Al Arabi	4	−1	3
11	Al Sulaibikhat	6	−9	3
12	Al Tadhamon	6	−14	0