Vushtrria v Ballkani prediction · Superliga

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · postponed

Ballkani are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Vushtrria 16%, draw 21%, Ballkani 63%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Vushtrria v BallkaniBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 09:31 · postponed, not graded

Vushtrria win16%

Draw21%

Ballkani win63%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Vushtrria

Ballkani

6Days since last match5

Last match: 18 Oct · Superliga (Kosovo)

Last match: 19 Oct · Superliga (Kosovo)

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Ballkani	10	0	13
10	Vushtrria	10	−18	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ballkani winFirst published 21 Oct 09:31 · postponed, not graded

63% The market63%

Us63%

~~Market~~63%

We make Ballkani a 63% chance to win. The market has them at 63%. We are level with the market. The model expects 0.8–2.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Vushtrria v Ballkani~~0.82 – 1.95

~~Form · last six in Superliga this season · since 8 Sept~~W1 D0 L5 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 3 v 13~~10 v 6

~~The market · Ballkani win~~63% · ours 63%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Ballkani win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 63% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Vushtrria win	16%	14%	+2
Draw	21%	23%	−2
Ballkani win	63%	63%	0
Over 2.5 goals	52%	50%	+2
Both teams to score	47%	45%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	76%	73%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	30%	29%	+1
Vushtrria or draw	37%	37%	0
Vushtrria clean sheet	15%	–	–
Ballkani clean sheet	45%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 12.1%

0123450 6.7 12.1 11.7 7.7 3.9 1 5.2 10.0 9.3 6.0 3.0 2 2.3 4.2 3.9 2.5 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Vushtrria down, Ballkani across0–5 goals a side shown (98.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 955 Superliga matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Superliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.0% of games this season, across 50 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Vushtrria at home: 0.33 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Ballkani away: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.82 goals for Vushtrria, 1.95 for Ballkani. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~BAL 2–1 VUS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Superliga this season · since 8 Sept

VUSHTRRIA

LLLWLL0–4 · 0–3 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–2

BALLKANI

LDLWLL0–1 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Malisheva	10	+15	23
2	Prishtina	9	+15	23
3	Gjilani	11	+5	18
4	Drita	9	+4	17
5	Dukagjini	10	+4	17
6	Ballkani	10	0	13
7	Drenica Skënderaj	10	−1	11
8	Feronikeli	10	−9	8
9	Llapi	11	−15	5
10	Vushtrria	10	−18	3