Prishtina v Dukagjini prediction · Superliga

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Prishtina 0–0 Dukagjini PRISHTINA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Prishtina win~~46%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.794

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.841

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Prishtina win at 46%.
2′Much as we predicted: Prishtina was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 46–28–26
3′Much as we predicted: Prishtina was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 46–29–26
49′We said Prishtina at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 33%. 0–0 · 33–46–21
53′We said Prishtina at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 32%. 0–0 · 32–48–20
73′We said Prishtina at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–68–13
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Prishtina win: 46% at kick-off, 19% now
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Prishtina win: 46% at kick-off, 32% now
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Prishtina win: 46% at kick-off, 32% now
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Prishtina win: 46% at kick-off, 19% now
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Prishtina win: 46% at kick-off, 19% now
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Prishtina win: 46% at kick-off, 32% now
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Prishtina win: 46% at kick-off, 32% now
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Prishtina win: 46% at kick-off, 19% now
88′We said Prishtina at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 3%. 0–0 · 3–95–2
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' Prishtina win: 46% at kick-off, 32% now
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' Prishtina win: 46% at kick-off, 19% now
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' Prishtina win: 46% at kick-off, 3% now
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' Prishtina win: 46% at kick-off, 3% now
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' Prishtina win: 46% at kick-off, 19% now
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Prishtina win: 46% at kick-off, 19% now
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Prishtina win: 46% at kick-off, 3% now
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 91' Prishtina win: 46% at kick-off, 19% now
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 91' Prishtina win: 46% at kick-off, 3% now
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 92' Prishtina win: 46% at kick-off, 3% now
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 92' Prishtina win: 46% at kick-off, 19% now
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 93' Prishtina win: 46% at kick-off, 3% now
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 93' Prishtina win: 46% at kick-off, 19% now
FTFULL TIME Prishtina 0–0 Dukagjini
FTPrishtina 0–0 Dukagjini · Prishtina win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Prishtina win46%

Draw28%

Dukagjini win26%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 17:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Prishtina

Dukagjini

23Days since last match21

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Prishtina	6	+14	18
4	Dukagjini	7	+3	12

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · prishtina winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

46% The market51%

Us46%

~~Market~~51%

We make Prishtina a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · prishtina win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Prishtina win	46%	51%	−5
Draw	28%	27%	+1
Dukagjini win	26%	22%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	39%	46%	−7
Both teams to score	44%	50%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	66%	70%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	19%	26%	−7
Prishtina or draw	74%	78%	−4
Prishtina clean sheet	40%	–	–
Dukagjini clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.8%

0123450 10.8 9.6 4.5 1 13.8 12.9 5.9 2 9.2 8.5 3.9 3 4.1 3.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Prishtina down, Dukagjini across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 943 Superliga matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Superliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.3% of games this season, across 38 played.

Head to head

20 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 8 of 20 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Prishtina at home: 2.67 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Dukagjini away: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.33 goals for Prishtina, 0.93 for Dukagjini. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

20 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 20

~~Both scored~~7 of 20

~~Last meetings~~PRI 1–1 DUK · DUK 0–1 PRI · PRI 2–0 DUK · DUK 2–3 PRI

Form · last six in Superliga

PRISHTINA

WWWWWW4–2 · 4–0 · 1–0 · 4–1 · 3–0 · 2–1

DUKAGJINI

WDWWDL1–0 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Malisheva	8	+14	19
2	Prishtina	6	+14	18
3	Ballkani	8	+2	13
4	Dukagjini	7	+3	12
5	Drita	7	+2	11
6	Gjilani	8	+1	11
7	Drenica Skënderaj	8	+2	10
8	Feronikeli	8	−8	7
9	Llapi	8	−14	3
10	Vushtrria	8	−16	3