Malisheva v Vushtrria prediction · Superliga

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04

Malisheva 2–1 Vushtrria MALISHEVA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Malisheva win~~75%

~~The market said~~81%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.092

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.060

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Malisheva win at 75%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Malisheva 75% before kick-off, 75% now. 0–0 · 75–15–9
1′KICK-OFF Malisheva v Vushtrria
12′A goal for Vushtrria on 12′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 49–24–28
12′We said Malisheva at 75%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 49%. 0–1 · 49–24–28
12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Malisheva 0–1 Vushtrria
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 12' Malisheva win: 75% at kick-off, 49% now
17′Malisheva score on 17′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 71–19–10
17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Malisheva 1–1 Vushtrria
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Malisheva win: 75% at kick-off, 71% now
26′Malisheva find the net on 26′. 2–1. 2–1 · 89–8–2
26′⚽ GOAL · 26' Malisheva 2–1 Vushtrria
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Malisheva win: 75% at kick-off, 89% now
27′We said Malisheva at 75% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 89%. 2–1 · 89–8–2
45′HALF-TIME Malisheva 2–1 Vushtrria
46′SECOND HALF Malisheva 2–1 Vushtrria
61′We said Malisheva at 75% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–1 · 90–9–1
71′The goal count is tracking the 3.3 we expected. 2–1 · 91–8–1
82′We said Malisheva at 75% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Malisheva win: 75% at kick-off, 95% now
FTFULL TIME Malisheva 2–1 Vushtrria
FTMalisheva 2–1 Vushtrria · Malisheva win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Malisheva are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Malisheva 75%, draw 15%, Vushtrria 9%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Malisheva v VushtrriaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Malisheva win75%

Draw15%

Vushtrria win9%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Malisheva

Vushtrria

3Days since last match4

Last match: 15 Oct · Superliga (Kosovo)

Last match: 14 Oct · Superliga (Kosovo)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · malisheva winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · updated 18 Oct 04:07 · locked at kick-off

75% The market81%

Us75%

~~Market~~81%

We make Malisheva a 75% chance to win. The market has them at 81%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.6–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Malisheva v Vushtrria~~2.57 – 0.75

~~Form · last six in Superliga this season · since 4 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 20 v 3~~1 v 10

~~The market · Malisheva win~~81% · ours 75%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Malisheva win The market, margin stripped

Published at 76%, 75% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 81% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Malisheva win	75%	81%	−6
Draw	15%	15%	0
Vushtrria win	9%	5%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	64%	61%	+3
Both teams to score	48%	37%	+11
Over 1.5 goals	84%	81%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	42%	41%	+1
Malisheva or draw	91%	95%	−4
Malisheva clean sheet	48%	–	–
Vushtrria clean sheet	8%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 11.7%

0123450 4.1 2.9 1 9.5 7.2 2.7 2 11.7 8.6 3.3 3 9.9 7.2 2.7 4 6.5 4.6 5 3.5 2.4

under 2% 5% 12%+Malisheva down, Vushtrria across0–5 goals a side shown (94.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 950 Superliga matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Superliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.1% of games this season, across 45 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 5.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Malisheva at home: 2.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Vushtrria away: 0.50 scored, 1.75 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

2.57 goals for Malisheva, 0.75 for Vushtrria. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~5.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~VUS 1–6 MAL · VUS 1–3 MAL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Superliga this season · since 4 Sept

MALISHEVA

WLWWWD3–1 · 0–2 · 4–0 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 1–1

VUSHTRRIA

LLLLWL0–1 · 0–4 · 0–3 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Malisheva	9	+14	20
2	Prishtina	8	+14	20
3	Drita	9	+4	17
4	Dukagjini	9	+4	16
5	Gjilani	9	+4	14
6	Ballkani	9	+1	13
7	Drenica Skënderaj	9	−1	10
8	Feronikeli	9	−8	8
9	Llapi	10	−15	4
10	Vushtrria	9	−17	3