Llapi v Drita prediction · Superliga

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35

Llapi 1–2 Drita DRITA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Drita win~~44%

~~The market said~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.478

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.417

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Drita win at 44%.
2′Much as we predicted: Drita was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 28–28–43
2′KICK-OFF Llapi v Drita
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Drita win 35%)
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Drita win: 44% at kick-off, 34% now
45′SECOND HALF Llapi 0–0 Drita
46′We published Drita at 44%. Our model now makes it 76%. 0–1 · 5–18–76
46′HALF-TIME Llapi 0–0 Drita
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Llapi 0–1 Drita
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Drita win: 44% at kick-off, 76% now
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 46' Drita win is now our likeliest result at 76% (was Draw 18%)
47′Goals are coming at about the 2.3 we expected. 0–1 · 5–18–77
48′Drita find the net on 47′. 0–1. 0–1 · 5–18–77
49′We published Drita at 44%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–2 · 1–4–95
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Llapi 0–2 Drita
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Drita win: 44% at kick-off, 95% now
50′A goal for Drita on 50′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 1–4–95
78′We published Drita at 44%. Our model now makes it 89%. 1–2 · 1–10–89
78′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.3 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 1–10–89
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Llapi 1–2 Drita
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Drita win: 44% at kick-off, 89% now
79′Llapi score on 78′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 1–9–90
79′We published Drita at 44%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–2 · 1–9–90
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Drita win: 44% at kick-off, 94% now
93′Full time, 1–2. We called Drita at 44% — that one lands. 1–2 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Llapi 1–2 Drita
FTLlapi 1–2 Drita · Drita win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Drita are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Llapi 28%, draw 28%, Drita 44%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Llapi v DritaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Llapi win28%

Draw28%

Drita win44%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Llapi

Drita

3Days since last match4

Last match: 14 Oct · Superliga (Kosovo)

Last match: 13 Oct · Superliga (Kosovo)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Drita	8	+3	14
9	Llapi	9	−14	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · drita winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

44% The market47%

Us44%

~~Market~~47%

We make Drita a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Llapi v Drita~~1.01 – 1.33

~~Form · last six in Superliga this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 4 v 14~~9 v 5

~~The market · Drita win~~47% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Drita win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Llapi win	28%	26%	+2
Draw	28%	27%	+1
Drita win	44%	47%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	41%	51%	−10
Both teams to score	47%	54%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	68%	74%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	21%	30%	−9
Llapi or draw	56%	53%	+3
Llapi clean sheet	27%	–	–
Drita clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%

0123450 10.0 12.6 8.5 3.8 1 9.6 13.0 8.5 3.8 2 5.0 6.5 4.3 3 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Llapi down, Drita across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 949 Superliga matches up to 15 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Superliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 44 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.60 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Llapi at home: 0.67 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Drita away: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.01 goals for Llapi, 1.33 for Drita. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.60

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~DRI 5–3 LLA · DRI 3–0 LLA · LLA 0–2 DRI · DRI 1–2 LLA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Superliga this season · since 5 Sept

LLAPI

LWLLLD1–2 · 4–0 · 0–4 · 0–4 · 0–1 · 0–0

DRITA

DLDWLW0–0 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Malisheva	9	+14	20
2	Prishtina	8	+14	20
3	Dukagjini	9	+4	16
4	Gjilani	9	+4	14
5	Drita	8	+3	14
6	Ballkani	9	+1	13
7	Drenica Skënderaj	9	−1	10
8	Feronikeli	9	−8	8
9	Llapi	9	−14	4
10	Vushtrria	9	−17	3