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Llapi v Ballkani

Llapi

0–1Full time

Ballkani

Superliga · FRI 9 OCT

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 15:49

Llapi 0–1 Ballkani BALLKANI WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ballkani win~~43%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.492

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.461

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Llapi win31%

Draw26%

Ballkani win43%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 13:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ballkani winPublished 9 Oct 13:02

43% The market45%

Us43%

~~Market~~45%

We make Ballkani a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.5.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Llapi win	31%	29%	+3
Draw	26%	27%	−1
Ballkani win	43%	45%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	52%	52%	0
Both teams to score	56%	56%	0
Over 1.5 goals	77%	76%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	30%	31%	−1
Llapi or draw	57%	55%	+2
Llapi clean sheet	22%	–	–
Ballkani clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%

0123450 6.7 9.1 7.1 3.6 1 7.5 12.1 8.9 4.5 2 5.0 7.4 5.6 2.8 3 2.1 3.2 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Llapi down, Ballkani across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 939 Superliga matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Superliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.8% of games this season, across 34 played.

Head to head

20 previous meetings, 2.75 goals a meeting; 9 of 20 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Llapi at home: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Ballkani away: 0.83 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.26 goals for Llapi, 1.52 for Ballkani. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

20 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.75

~~Over 2.5~~9 of 20

~~Both scored~~10 of 20

~~Last meetings~~BAL 0–1 LLA · LLA 2–0 BAL · BAL 2–4 LLA · LLA 2–2 BAL

Form · last six in Superliga

LLAPI

LLLWLL0–2 · 0–4 · 1–2 · 4–0 · 0–4 · 0–4

BALLKANI

WWWLDL2–1 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Prishtina	6	+14	18
2	Malisheva	7	+13	16
3	Dukagjini	7	+3	12
4	Drita	6	+3	11
5	Gjilani	7	+2	11
6	Ballkani	7	+1	10
7	Drenica Skënderaj	7	+2	9
8	Feronikeli	7	−8	6
9	Llapi	7	−13	3
10	Vushtrria	7	−17	0