Gjilani v Drenica Skënderaj prediction · Superliga

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 19:32

Gjilani 3–0 Drenica Skënderaj GJILANI WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Gjilani win~~48%

~~The market said~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.399

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.371

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Gjilani win at 48%.
1′Much as we predicted: Gjilani was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 49–25–26
1′KICK-OFF Gjilani v Drenica Skënderaj
21′⚽ GOAL · 21' Gjilani 1–0 Drenica Skënderaj
21′⚽ GOAL · 22' Gjilani 0–0 Drenica Skënderaj
22′22′ and it is 1–0: Gjilani have scored. 1–0 · 74–17–8
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Gjilani win: 48% at kick-off, 74% now
23′We published Gjilani at 48%. Our model now makes it 74%. 1–0 · 74–17–8
25′We published Gjilani at 48%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–17–8
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 75–18–7
45′SECOND HALF Gjilani 1–0 Drenica Skënderaj
50′Drenica Skënderaj find the net on 50′. 1–0. 1–0 · 78–18–5
50′PENALTY MISSED · 50' Drenica Skënderaj
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Gjilani win: 48% at kick-off, 78% now
59′We published Gjilani at 48%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–4
64′A goal for Gjilani on 65′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 97–2–0
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Gjilani 2–0 Drenica Skënderaj · A. Thaqi
64′⚽ GOAL · 65' Gjilani 2–0 Drenica Skënderaj
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Gjilani win: 48% at kick-off, 97% now
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Gjilani 2–0 Drenica Skënderaj · A. Thaqi
66′We published Gjilani at 48%. Our model now makes it 98%. 2–0 · 98–2–0
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Gjilani win: 48% at kick-off, 98% now
81′We published Gjilani at 48%. Our model now makes it 100%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
85′86′ and it is 3–0: Gjilani have scored. 3–0 · 100–0–0
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Gjilani 3–0 Drenica Skënderaj · A. Thaqi
85′⚽ GOAL · 86' Gjilani 3–0 Drenica Skënderaj
87′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 100–0–0
90′Full time, 3–0. We called Gjilani at 48% — that one lands. 3–0 · 100–0–0
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Gjilani win: 48% at kick-off, 100% now
FTFULL TIME Gjilani 3–0 Drenica Skënderaj
FTGjilani 3–0 Drenica Skënderaj · Gjilani win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

1

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

2

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

3

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 16:14 · locked at kick-off

Gjilani win48%

Draw25%

Drenica Skënderaj win26%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 17:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Gjilani

Drenica Skënderaj

3Days since last match3

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Gjilani	8	+1	11
7	Drenica Skënderaj	8	+2	10

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · gjilani winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 16:14 · locked at kick-off

48% The market50%

Us48%

~~Market~~50%

We make Gjilani a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.6–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · gjilani win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 50% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gjilani win	48%	50%	−2
Draw	25%	27%	−2
Drenica Skënderaj win	26%	23%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	51%	48%	+3
Both teams to score	53%	50%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	75%	71%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	29%	28%	+1
Gjilani or draw	74%	77%	−4
Gjilani clean sheet	33%	–	–
Drenica Skënderaj clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%

0123450 7.0 7.3 4.1 1 10.5 11.9 6.5 2.4 2 8.5 9.3 5.2 3 4.5 5.0 2.8 4 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Gjilani down, Drenica Skënderaj across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 944 Superliga matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Superliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 53.8% of games this season, across 39 played.

Head to head

12 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 4 of 12 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Gjilani at home: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Drenica Skënderaj away: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.60 goals for Gjilani, 1.11 for Drenica Skënderaj. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

12 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 12

~~Both scored~~5 of 12

~~Last meetings~~DRE 2–1 GJI · GJI 0–1 DRE · DRE 0–1 GJI · GJI 0–1 DRE

Form · last six in Superliga

GJILANI

DLWDLL2–2 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 0–1

DRENICA SKËNDERAJ

LDLWWD0–2 · 0–0 · 1–4 · 3–0 · 4–0 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Malisheva	8	+14	19
2	Prishtina	7	+14	19
3	Dukagjini	8	+3	13
4	Ballkani	8	+2	13
5	Drita	7	+2	11
6	Gjilani	8	+1	11
7	Drenica Skënderaj	8	+2	10
8	Feronikeli	8	−8	7
9	Llapi	8	−14	3
10	Vushtrria	8	−16	3