Feronikeli v Dukagjini prediction · Superliga

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

FeronikeliDrawDukagjini

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Dukagjini 46%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Dukagjini are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Feronikeli 25%, draw 29%, Dukagjini 46%. Over 2.5 goals 35%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on Feronikeli v DukagjiniBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 09:31 · locked at kick-off

Feronikeli win25%

Draw29%

Dukagjini win46%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Feronikeli

Dukagjini

7Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · Superliga (Kosovo)

Last match: 19 Oct · Superliga (Kosovo)

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Dukagjini	10	+4	17
8	Feronikeli	10	−9	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · dukagjini winFirst published 21 Oct 09:31 · locked at kick-off

46% The market–

Us46%

We make Dukagjini a 46% chance to win. The model expects 0.8–1.3, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Feronikeli v Dukagjini~~0.84 – 1.26

~~Form · last six in Superliga this season · since 9 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 8 v 17~~8 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Feronikeli win	25%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Dukagjini win	46%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	35%	–	–
Both teams to score	41%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	62%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	16%	–	–
Feronikeli or draw	54%	–	–
Feronikeli clean sheet	29%	–	–
Dukagjini clean sheet	43%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 15.2%

0123450 12.6 15.2 9.7 4.1 1 10.2 13.0 8.0 3.4 2 4.4 5.4 3.4 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Feronikeli down, Dukagjini across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 956 Superliga matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Superliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.1% of games this season, across 51 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.20 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Feronikeli at home: 0.83 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Dukagjini away: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.84 goals for Feronikeli, 1.26 for Dukagjini. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.20

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~DUK 1–0 FER · DUK 3–0 FER · DUK 2–1 FER · FER 1–0 DUK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Superliga this season · since 9 Sept

FERONIKELI

WLWDDL1–0 · 0–3 · 3–1 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 0–1

DUKAGJINI

WDLDWD2–0 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Malisheva	11	+17	26
2	Prishtina	9	+15	23
3	Gjilani	11	+5	18
4	Drita	9	+4	17
5	Dukagjini	10	+4	17
6	Ballkani	10	0	13
7	Drenica Skënderaj	11	−3	11
8	Feronikeli	10	−9	8
9	Llapi	11	−15	5
10	Vushtrria	10	−18	3