Dukagjini v Drenica Skënderaj prediction · Superliga

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 20:00

Dukagjini 1–1 Drenica Skënderaj DUKAGJINI WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Dukagjini win~~47%

~~The market said~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.811

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.843

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Dukagjini win at 47%.
1′Much as we predicted: Dukagjini was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 47–28–26
1′KICK-OFF Dukagjini v Drenica Skënderaj
4′We published Dukagjini at 47%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–17–9
4′PENALTY MISSED · 4' Dukagjini
4′⚽ GOAL · 4' Dukagjini 1–0 Drenica Skënderaj
4′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 4' Dukagjini win: 47% at kick-off, 75% now
5′A goal for Dukagjini on 5′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 75–17–9
16′🟥 RED CARD · 16' Dukagjini
17′A red card for Dukagjini on 16′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–0 · 75–17–8
19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Dukagjini 1–1 Drenica Skënderaj
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Dukagjini win: 47% at kick-off, 43% now
21′Drenica Skënderaj score on 20′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 43–32–25
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Dukagjini win: 47% at kick-off, 37% now
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Dukagjini win 39%)
45′HALF-TIME Dukagjini 1–1 Drenica Skënderaj
45′SECOND HALF Dukagjini 1–1 Drenica Skënderaj
47′We said Dukagjini at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 35%. 1–1 · 35–43–21
49′We said Dukagjini at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–45–21
59′We said Dukagjini at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–52–19
62′Goals are coming at about the 2.3 we expected. 1–1 · 28–55–18
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Dukagjini win: 47% at kick-off, 27% now
67′We said Dukagjini at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–60–16
74′We said Dukagjini at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–69–12
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Dukagjini win: 47% at kick-off, 17% now
79′We said Dukagjini at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–77–9
84′We said Dukagjini at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 1–1 · 8–86–6
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Dukagjini win: 47% at kick-off, 7% now
90′We said Dukagjini at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–93–3
FTFULL TIME Dukagjini 1–1 Drenica Skënderaj
FTDukagjini 1–1 Drenica Skënderaj · Dukagjini win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Dukagjini are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Dukagjini 47%, draw 28%, Drenica Skënderaj 26%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Dukagjini v Drenica SkënderajBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Dukagjini win47%

Draw28%

Drenica Skënderaj win26%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dukagjini

Drenica Skënderaj

5Days since last match6

Last match: 14 Oct · Superliga (Kosovo)

Last match: 13 Oct · Superliga (Kosovo)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Dukagjini	9	+4	16
7	Drenica Skënderaj	9	−1	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · dukagjini winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

47% The market53%

Us47%

~~Market~~53%

We make Dukagjini a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Dukagjini v Drenica Skënderaj~~1.39 – 0.95

~~Form · last six in Superliga this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 16 v 10~~5 v 7

~~The market · Dukagjini win~~53% · ours 47%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Dukagjini win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dukagjini win	47%	53%	−6
Draw	28%	27%	+1
Drenica Skënderaj win	26%	20%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	41%	44%	−3
Both teams to score	46%	46%	0
Over 1.5 goals	68%	69%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	21%	24%	−3
Dukagjini or draw	74%	80%	−6
Dukagjini clean sheet	39%	–	–
Drenica Skënderaj clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.2%

0123450 10.0 9.0 4.4 1 13.2 12.7 6.0 2 9.3 8.7 4.1 3 4.3 4.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dukagjini down, Drenica Skënderaj across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 952 Superliga matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Superliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.1% of games this season, across 47 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.20 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Dukagjini at home: 1.33 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Drenica Skënderaj away: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.39 goals for Dukagjini, 0.95 for Drenica Skënderaj. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.20

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~DRE 0–0 DUK · DUK 0–1 DRE · DRE 2–2 DUK · DUK 3–0 DRE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Superliga this season · since 5 Sept

DUKAGJINI

WWDLDW2–1 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 1–0

DRENICA SKËNDERAJ

DLWWDL0–0 · 1–4 · 3–0 · 4–0 · 2–2 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Malisheva	10	+15	23
2	Prishtina	8	+14	20
3	Gjilani	10	+5	17
4	Drita	9	+4	17
5	Dukagjini	9	+4	16
6	Ballkani	9	+1	13
7	Drenica Skënderaj	9	−1	10
8	Feronikeli	10	−9	8
9	Llapi	10	−15	4
10	Vushtrria	10	−18	3