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Model 1.1
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Drita v Malisheva

Drita
0–1Full time
Malisheva

Superliga · FRI 9 OCT

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 19:31
Drita 0–1 Malisheva DRITA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Drita win48%
The market said35%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.855
The market’s Brier score0.611

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay0 notes · 4 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Drita win at 48%.
  2. 73′⚽ GOAL · 57' Drita 0–1 Malisheva · D. Ibishi
  3. 73′⚽ GOAL · 71' Drita 0–1 Malisheva
  4. 73′SECOND HALF Drita 0–1 Malisheva
  5. FTFULL TIME Drita 0–1 Malisheva
  6. FTDrita 0–1 Malisheva · Drita win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Drita win48%
Draw26%
Malisheva win26%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 17:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · drita winPublished 9 Oct 17:06
48% The market35%
Us48%
Market35%

We make Drita a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are 13 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published
30%35%40%45%50% 9 OCT 06:199 OCT 14:08
Our probability · drita win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Drita win48%35%+13
Draw26%28%−2
Malisheva win26%36%−11
Over 2.5 goals48%47%+1
Both teams to score51%52%−1
Over 1.5 goals73%71%+3
Over 3.5 goals26%26%+1
Drita or draw74%64%+11
Drita clean sheet35%––
Malisheva clean sheet22%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%
0123450 7.9 7.5 4.2 1 11.2 12.3 6.3 2.2 2 8.8 9.2 4.8 3 4.6 4.8 2.5 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Drita down, Malisheva across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

20 meetings since 2021
Goals a meeting2.45
Over 2.59 of 20
Both scored12 of 20
Last meetingsMAL 3–2 DRI · DRI 2–0 MAL · MAL 1–1 DRI · DRI 2–1 MAL

Form · last six in Superliga

DRITA

WWDLDW5–3 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 2–1

MALISHEVA

DWWLWW1–1 · 3–0 · 3–1 · 0–2 · 4–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Prishtina6+1418
2Malisheva7+1316
3Dukagjini7+312
4Drita6+311
5Gjilani7+211
6Ballkani7+110
7Drenica Skënderaj7+29
8Feronikeli7−86
9Llapi7−133
10Vushtrria7−170

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.