Drenica Skënderaj v Malisheva prediction · Superliga

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 19:48

Drenica Skënderaj 0–2 Malisheva MALISHEVA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Malisheva win~~43%

~~The market said~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.496

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.413

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Malisheva win at 43%.
2′Much as we predicted: Malisheva was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 33–25–43
2′KICK-OFF Drenica Skënderaj v Malisheva
34′We published Malisheva at 43%. Our model now makes it 70%. 0–1 · 10–20–70
34′Goals are coming at about the 3.0 we expected. 0–1 · 10–20–70
34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Drenica Skënderaj 0–1 Malisheva
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Malisheva win: 43% at kick-off, 70% now
35′Malisheva find the net on 35′. 0–1. 0–1 · 10–20–70
45′SECOND HALF Drenica Skënderaj 0–1 Malisheva
46′HALF-TIME Drenica Skënderaj 0–1 Malisheva
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Malisheva win: 43% at kick-off, 73% now
52′We published Malisheva at 43%. Our model now makes it 93%. 0–2 · 1–5–93
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Drenica Skënderaj 0–2 Malisheva
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Malisheva win: 43% at kick-off, 93% now
53′A goal for Malisheva on 52′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 1–5–94
58′We published Malisheva at 43%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–2 · 1–5–95
83′We published Malisheva at 43%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
94′Full time, 0–2. We called Malisheva at 43% — that one lands. 0–2 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Drenica Skënderaj 0–2 Malisheva
FTDrenica Skënderaj 0–2 Malisheva · Malisheva win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Malisheva are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Drenica Skënderaj 33%, draw 25%, Malisheva 43%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Drenica Skënderaj v MalishevaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 09:31 · locked at kick-off

Drenica Skënderaj win33%

Draw25%

Malisheva win43%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Drenica Skënderaj

Malisheva

5Days since last match6

Last match: 19 Oct · Superliga (Kosovo)

Last match: 18 Oct · Superliga (Kosovo)

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · malisheva winFirst published 21 Oct 09:31 · locked at kick-off

43% The market48%

Us43%

~~Market~~48%

We make Malisheva a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Drenica Skënderaj v Malisheva~~1.37 – 1.60

~~Form · last six in Superliga this season · since 8 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 11 v 23~~7 v 1

~~The market · Malisheva win~~48% · ours 43%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Malisheva win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Drenica Skënderaj win	33%	25%	+8
Draw	25%	28%	−3
Malisheva win	43%	48%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	57%	46%	+11
Both teams to score	59%	50%	+9
Over 1.5 goals	80%	70%	+10
Over 3.5 goals	35%	26%	+9
Drenica Skënderaj or draw	57%	52%	+5
Drenica Skënderaj clean sheet	20%	–	–
Malisheva clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.3%

0123450 5.4 8.1 6.6 3.5 1 6.9 11.3 8.9 4.7 2 4.8 7.6 6.1 3.2 3 2.2 3.5 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Drenica Skënderaj down, Malisheva across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 955 Superliga matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Superliga matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.0% of games this season, across 50 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.20 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Drenica Skënderaj at home: 1.67 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Malisheva away: 2.67 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.37 goals for Drenica Skënderaj, 1.60 for Malisheva. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.20

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~MAL 1–1 DRE · MAL 4–1 DRE · DRE 4–2 MAL · MAL 2–0 DRE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Superliga this season · since 8 Sept

DRENICA SKËNDERAJ

LWWDLD1–4 · 3–0 · 4–0 · 2–2 · 0–3 · 1–1

MALISHEVA

LWWWDW0–2 · 4–0 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Malisheva	10	+15	23
2	Prishtina	9	+15	23
3	Gjilani	11	+5	18
4	Drita	9	+4	17
5	Dukagjini	10	+4	17
6	Ballkani	10	0	13
7	Drenica Skënderaj	10	−1	11
8	Feronikeli	10	−9	8
9	Llapi	11	−15	5
10	Vushtrria	10	−18	3