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Drenica Skënderaj v Feronikeli

Drenica Skënderaj
2–2Full time
Feronikeli

Superliga · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 20:02
Drenica Skënderaj 2–2 Feronikeli DRENICA SKËNDERAJ WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Drenica Skënderaj win59%
The market said48%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.980
The market’s Brier score0.818

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 22 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Drenica Skënderaj win at 59%.
  2. 1′2′ and it is 0–1: Feronikeli have scored. 0–1 · 35–25–40
  3. 8′Drenica Skënderaj find the net on 5′. 1–1. 1–1 · 58–24–18
  4. 23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Drenica Skënderaj win: 59% at kick-off, 35% now
  5. 23′THE CALL SWINGS · 23' Feronikeli win is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Drenica Skënderaj win 35%)
  6. 23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Drenica Skënderaj win: 59% at kick-off, 58% now
  7. 23′THE CALL SWINGS · 23' Drenica Skënderaj win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Feronikeli win 18%)
  8. 24′Drenica Skënderaj ahead on 5′ through A. Veliqi. 1–1. 1–1 · 54–28–18
  9. 24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Drenica Skënderaj win: 59% at kick-off, 35% now
  10. 24′THE CALL SWINGS · 24' Feronikeli win is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Drenica Skënderaj win 35%)
  11. 24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Drenica Skënderaj win: 59% at kick-off, 58% now
  12. 24′THE CALL SWINGS · 24' Drenica Skënderaj win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Feronikeli win 18%)
  13. 32′Little has changed for our model: Drenica Skënderaj 59% before kick-off, 51% now. 1–1 · 51–31–18
  14. 45′SECOND HALF Drenica Skënderaj 1–1 Feronikeli
  15. 47′We said Drenica Skënderaj at 59%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 46%. 1–1 · 46–37–17
  16. 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Drenica Skënderaj win: 59% at kick-off, 46% now
  17. 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Drenica Skënderaj win: 59% at kick-off, 51% now
  18. 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Drenica Skënderaj win: 59% at kick-off, 46% now
  19. 52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Drenica Skënderaj win: 59% at kick-off, 46% now
  20. 53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Drenica Skënderaj win: 59% at kick-off, 46% now
  21. 54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Drenica Skënderaj win: 59% at kick-off, 46% now
  22. 55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Drenica Skënderaj win: 59% at kick-off, 46% now
  23. 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Drenica Skënderaj win: 59% at kick-off, 46% now
  24. 61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Drenica Skënderaj 2–1 Feronikeli · A. Veliqi
  25. 61′⚽ GOAL · 62' Drenica Skënderaj 2–1 Feronikeli
  26. 71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Drenica Skënderaj 2–2 Feronikeli · A. Veliqi
  27. 71′⚽ GOAL · 72' Drenica Skënderaj 2–2 Feronikeli
  28. FTFULL TIME Drenica Skënderaj 2–2 Feronikeli
  29. FTDrenica Skënderaj 2–2 Feronikeli · Drenica Skënderaj win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Drenica Skënderaj win59%
Draw23%
Feronikeli win18%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 17:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · drenica skënderaj winPublished 10 Oct 17:01
59% The market48%
Us59%
Market48%

We make Drenica Skënderaj a 59% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 12 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55%60%65% 9 OCT 06:1910 OCT 03:57
Our probability · drenica skënderaj win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Drenica Skënderaj win59%48%+12
Draw23%27%−5
Feronikeli win18%25%−7
Over 2.5 goals52%47%+5
Both teams to score50%51%−2
Over 1.5 goals76%72%+4
Over 3.5 goals30%26%+3
Drenica Skënderaj or draw82%75%+7
Drenica Skënderaj clean sheet41%––
Feronikeli clean sheet16%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.7%
0123450 6.8 5.7 2.7 1 11.7 10.7 4.8 2 10.8 9.6 4.3 3 6.7 5.9 2.7 4 3.2 2.8 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Drenica Skënderaj down, Feronikeli across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021
Goals a meeting4.25
Over 2.53 of 4
Both scored1 of 4
Last meetingsFER 2–3 DRE · DRE 6–0 FER · FER 0–2 DRE · DRE 4–0 FER

Form · last six in Superliga

DRENICA SKËNDERAJ

DLDLWW1–1 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 1–4 · 3–0 · 4–0

FERONIKELI

LLLWLW0–1 · 0–3 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 3–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Malisheva8+1419
2Prishtina6+1418
3Ballkani8+213
4Dukagjini7+312
5Gjilani7+211
6Drita7+211
7Drenica Skënderaj7+29
8Feronikeli7−86
9Llapi8−143
10Vushtrria7−170

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.