Vjosa v Mitrovica prediction · Liga E Pare

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 14:53

Vjosa 3–0 Mitrovica VJOSA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Vjosa win~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.353

This prediction was last updated after the match had started (it kicked off on 21 Oct 13:00), so it is shown but not counted in the record’s figures.

The prediction on this page is exactly as we last published it. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match pulse

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Match outcome probability (%)

VjosaDrawMitrovica

Our model, re-priced from the score and the clock at every minuteFull time

Full time · Vjosa 3–0 Mitrovica

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Vjosa are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Vjosa 52%, draw 28%, Mitrovica 20%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Vjosa v MitrovicaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Vjosa

Mitrovica

3Days since last match3

Last match: 21 Oct · Liga E Pare

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Vjosa	11	+4	14
18	Mitrovica	10	−10	5

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 16:01 · locked at kick-off

Vjosa win52%

Draw28%

Mitrovica win20%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 11

Match statistics

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · vjosa winFirst published 20 Oct 16:01 · updated 22 Oct 01:40 · locked at kick-off

52% The market–

Us52%

We make Vjosa a 52% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Vjosa v Mitrovica~~1.52 – 0.84

~~Form · last six in Liga E Pare this season · since 11 Sept~~W2 D3 L1 · W0 D2 L4

~~Table places · points 14 v 5~~10 v 18

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Vjosa win

Published at 45%, 52% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Vjosa win	52%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Mitrovica win	20%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	42%	–	–
Both teams to score	44%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	68%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	22%	–	–
Vjosa or draw	80%	–	–
Vjosa clean sheet	44%	–	–
Mitrovica clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.4%

0123450 11.0 7.2 3.5 1 13.4 12.5 5.0 2 10.6 8.6 3.7 3 5.5 4.4 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Vjosa down, Mitrovica across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 403 Liga E Pare matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga E Pare matches have gone over 2.5 in 38.8% of games this season, across 98 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026/27 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Vjosa at home: 1.67 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Mitrovica away: 0.50 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.52 goals for Vjosa, 0.84 for Mitrovica. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026/27

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~VJO 3–0 MIT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga E Pare this season · since 11 Sept

VJOSA

LDWDDW1–2 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 3–0

MITROVICA

DLLLDL1–1 · 0–1 · 1–4 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Prishtina e Re	11	+9	24
2	Liria Prizren	10	+10	23
3	Rilindja 1974	11	+7	21
4	Trepça'89	11	+6	20
5	Ferizaj	11	+10	19
6	Dinamo Ferizaj	11	+8	19
7	Suhareka	11	+5	16
8	Istogu	11	−4	16
9	2 Korriku	11	0	15
10	Vjosa	11	+4	14
11	Vëllaznimi	11	−5	14
12	FC Besa Peja	11	−2	12
13	Trepça Mitrovicë	11	−10	11
14	Ramiz Sadiku	11	−5	9
15	KF Lepenci	11	−6	9
16	Kika	11	−9	9
17	Tefik Canga	11	−8	6
18	Mitrovica	10	−10	5