Trepça Mitrovicë v Trepça'89 prediction · Liga E Pare

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Trepça MitrovicëDrawTrepça'89

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Trepça'89 57%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Trepça'89 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Trepça Mitrovicë 18%, draw 25%, Trepça'89 57%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Trepça Mitrovicë v Trepça'89Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 23 Oct 15:33 · locked at kick-off

Trepça Mitrovicë win18%

Draw25%

Trepça'89 win57%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Trepça Mitrovicë

Trepça'89

4Days since last match4

Last match: 21 Oct · Liga E Pare

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Trepça'89	11	+6	20
13	Trepça Mitrovicë	11	−10	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · trepça'89 winFirst published 23 Oct 15:33 · locked at kick-off

57% The market–

Us57%

We make Trepça'89 a 57% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–1.8, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Trepça Mitrovicë v Trepça'89~~0.87 – 1.76

~~Form · last six in Liga E Pare this season · since 19 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 11 v 20~~13 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Trepça Mitrovicë win	18%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Trepça'89 win	57%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	49%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	28%	–	–
Trepça Mitrovicë or draw	43%	–	–
Trepça Mitrovicë clean sheet	18%	–	–
Trepça'89 clean sheet	43%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 12.0%

0123450 8.7 12.0 11.0 6.5 3.0 1 5.5 11.4 9.1 5.4 2.5 2 2.8 4.7 4.1 2.4 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Trepça Mitrovicë down, Trepça'89 across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 403 Liga E Pare matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga E Pare matches have gone over 2.5 in 38.8% of games this season, across 98 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Trepça Mitrovicë at home: 1.00 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Trepça'89 away: 1.00 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.87 goals for Trepça Mitrovicë, 1.76 for Trepça'89. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~Trepça'89 1–0 Trepça Mitrovicë · Trepça Mitrovicë 1–1 Trepça'89

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga E Pare this season · since 19 Sept

TREPÇA MITROVICË

WLWLLL1–0 · 1–4 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 0–2

TREPÇA'89

WDLWDW2–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 0–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Prishtina e Re	11	+9	24
2	Liria Prizren	10	+10	23
3	Rilindja 1974	11	+7	21
4	Trepça'89	11	+6	20
5	Ferizaj	11	+10	19
6	Dinamo Ferizaj	11	+8	19
7	Suhareka	11	+5	16
8	Istogu	11	−4	16
9	2 Korriku	11	0	15
10	Vjosa	11	+4	14
11	Vëllaznimi	11	−5	14
12	FC Besa Peja	11	−2	12
13	Trepça Mitrovicë	11	−10	11
14	Ramiz Sadiku	11	−5	9
15	KF Lepenci	11	−6	9
16	Kika	11	−9	9
17	Tefik Canga	11	−8	6
18	Mitrovica	10	−10	5