Trepça Mitrovicë v Liria Prizren prediction · Liga E Pare

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04

Trepça Mitrovicë 0–1 Liria Prizren LIRIA PRIZREN WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Liria Prizren win~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.305

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Liria Prizren are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Trepça Mitrovicë 19%, draw 26%, Liria Prizren 55%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Trepça Mitrovicë v Liria PrizrenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Trepça Mitrovicë win19%

Draw26%

Liria Prizren win55%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Trepça Mitrovicë

Liria Prizren

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Liga E Pare

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Liria Prizren	8	+5	17
13	Trepça Mitrovicë	9	−7	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · liria prizren winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 00:10 · locked at kick-off

55% The market–

Us55%

We make Liria Prizren a 55% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–1.7, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Trepça Mitrovicë v Liria Prizren~~0.88 – 1.70

~~Form · last six in Liga E Pare this season · since 30 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 11 v 17~~13 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Liria Prizren win

Published at 56%, 55% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Trepça Mitrovicë win	19%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Liria Prizren win	55%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	47%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	73%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	26%	–	–
Trepça Mitrovicë or draw	45%	–	–
Trepça Mitrovicë clean sheet	19%	–	–
Liria Prizren clean sheet	42%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 11.9%

0123450 9.2 11.9 10.7 6.2 2.8 1 5.8 11.9 9.0 5.1 2.3 2 3.1 4.9 4.0 2.3 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Trepça Mitrovicë down, Liria Prizren across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 392 Liga E Pare matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga E Pare matches have gone over 2.5 in 36.8% of games this season, across 87 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 5.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Trepça Mitrovicë at home: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Liria Prizren away: 1.17 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.88 goals for Trepça Mitrovicë, 1.70 for Liria Prizren. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~5.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~TRE 2–5 LIR · LIR 2–2 TRE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga E Pare this season · since 30 Aug

TREPÇA MITROVICË

DDWLWL0–0 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 1–4 · 1–0 · 0–2

LIRIA PRIZREN

WLWWWD2–1 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Prishtina e Re	10	+7	21
2	Dinamo Ferizaj	10	+9	19
3	Rilindja 1974	10	+4	18
4	Trepça'89	10	+5	17
5	Liria Prizren	8	+5	17
6	Ferizaj	10	+8	16
7	2 Korriku	10	+2	15
8	Suhareka	9	+5	13
9	Istogu	10	−5	13
10	FC Besa Peja	10	0	12
11	Vjosa	10	+1	11
12	Vëllaznimi	10	−7	11
13	Trepça Mitrovicë	9	−7	11
14	Ramiz Sadiku	10	−4	9
15	KF Lepenci	10	−4	9
16	Kika	10	−5	9
17	Mitrovica	9	−7	5
18	Tefik Canga	9	−7	3