Tefik Canga v Suhareka prediction · Liga E Pare

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04

Tefik Canga 0–3 Suhareka SUHAREKA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Suhareka win~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.517

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Suhareka are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Tefik Canga 34%, draw 24%, Suhareka 42%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 65%.

The AI’s read on Tefik Canga v SuharekaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Tefik Canga win34%

Draw24%

Suhareka win42%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Tefik Canga

Suhareka

8Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · Liga E Pare

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Suhareka	9	+5	13
18	Tefik Canga	9	−7	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · suhareka winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 00:10 · locked at kick-off

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Suhareka a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.8, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Tefik Canga v Suhareka~~1.59 – 1.78

~~Form · last six in Liga E Pare this season · since 5 Sept~~W0 D2 L4 · W1 D4 L1

~~Table places · points 3 v 13~~18 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Suhareka win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tefik Canga win	34%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Suhareka win	42%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	64%	–	–
Both teams to score	65%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	85%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	43%	–	–
Tefik Canga or draw	58%	–	–
Tefik Canga clean sheet	18%	–	–
Suhareka clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.4%

0123450 4.8 5.4 5.5 3.3 1 4.9 10.4 8.1 4.8 2.3 2 4.5 7.5 6.3 3.7 3 2.4 4.0 3.4 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tefik Canga down, Suhareka across0–5 goals a side shown (97.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 392 Liga E Pare matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga E Pare matches have gone over 2.5 in 36.8% of games this season, across 87 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 6.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tefik Canga at home: 0.83 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Suhareka away: 1.17 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.59 goals for Tefik Canga, 1.78 for Suhareka. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~6.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SUH 6–3 TEF · TEF 1–2 SUH

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga E Pare this season · since 5 Sept

TEFIK CANGA

DLLDLL2–2 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–1

SUHAREKA

DDLWDD2–2 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 4–1 · 0–0 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Prishtina e Re	10	+7	21
2	Dinamo Ferizaj	10	+9	19
3	Rilindja 1974	10	+4	18
4	Trepça'89	10	+5	17
5	Liria Prizren	8	+5	17
6	Ferizaj	10	+8	16
7	2 Korriku	10	+2	15
8	Suhareka	9	+5	13
9	Istogu	10	−5	13
10	FC Besa Peja	10	0	12
11	Vjosa	10	+1	11
12	Vëllaznimi	10	−7	11
13	Trepça Mitrovicë	9	−7	11
14	Ramiz Sadiku	10	−4	9
15	KF Lepenci	10	−4	9
16	Kika	10	−5	9
17	Mitrovica	9	−7	5
18	Tefik Canga	9	−7	3