Suhareka v Rilindja 1974 prediction · Liga E Pare

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 15:31

Suhareka 1–4 Rilindja 1974 SUHAREKA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Suhareka win~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.024

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Suhareka are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Suhareka 58%, draw 22%, Rilindja 1974 20%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Suhareka v Rilindja 1974Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 16:01 · locked at kick-off

Suhareka win58%

Draw22%

Rilindja 1974 win20%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Suhareka

Rilindja 1974

3Days since last match4

Last match: 18 Oct · Liga E Pare

Last match: 17 Oct · Liga E Pare

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Rilindja 1974	10	+4	18
6	Suhareka	10	+8	16

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · suhareka winFirst published 20 Oct 16:01 · locked at kick-off

58% The market–

Us58%

We make Suhareka a 58% chance to win. The model expects 2.1–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Suhareka v Rilindja 1974~~2.12 – 1.16

~~Form · last six in Liga E Pare this season · since 11 Sept~~W2 D3 L1 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 16 v 18~~6 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Suhareka win	58%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Rilindja 1974 win	20%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	63%	–	–
Both teams to score	60%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	84%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	41%	–	–
Suhareka or draw	80%	–	–
Suhareka clean sheet	32%	–	–
Rilindja 1974 clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.9%

0123450 5.1 3.8 2.7 1 7.4 9.9 5.3 2.1 2 8.4 9.3 5.3 2.1 3 5.9 6.5 3.7 4 3.2 3.5 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Suhareka down, Rilindja 1974 across0–5 goals a side shown (97.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 394 Liga E Pare matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga E Pare matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.1% of games this season, across 89 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Suhareka at home: 3.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Rilindja 1974 away: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.12 goals for Suhareka, 1.16 for Rilindja 1974. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SUH 3–1 RIL · RIL 2–1 SUH

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga E Pare this season · since 11 Sept

SUHAREKA

DLWDDW1–1 · 1–3 · 4–1 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 3–0

RILINDJA 1974

WWWLWD3–0 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Prishtina e Re	10	+7	21
2	Liria Prizren	9	+6	20
3	Dinamo Ferizaj	10	+9	19
4	Rilindja 1974	10	+4	18
5	Trepça'89	10	+5	17
6	Suhareka	10	+8	16
7	Ferizaj	10	+8	16
8	2 Korriku	10	+2	15
9	Istogu	10	−5	13
10	FC Besa Peja	10	0	12
11	Vjosa	10	+1	11
12	Vëllaznimi	10	−7	11
13	Trepça Mitrovicë	10	−8	11
14	Ramiz Sadiku	10	−4	9
15	KF Lepenci	10	−4	9
16	Kika	10	−5	9
17	Mitrovica	9	−7	5
18	Tefik Canga	10	−10	3