Rilindja 1974 v Vëllaznimi prediction · Liga E Pare

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 16:26

Rilindja 1974 1–1 Vëllaznimi RILINDJA 1974 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Rilindja 1974 win~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.791

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Rilindja 1974 just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Rilindja 1974 37%, draw 27%, Vëllaznimi 36%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Rilindja 1974 v VëllaznimiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Rilindja 1974 win37%

Draw27%

Vëllaznimi win36%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Rilindja 1974

Vëllaznimi

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Liga E Pare

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Rilindja 1974	9	+4	17
13	Vëllaznimi	9	−7	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · rilindja 1974 winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

37% The market–

Us37%

We make Rilindja 1974 a 37% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Rilindja 1974 v Vëllaznimi~~1.40 – 1.36

~~Form · last six in Liga E Pare this season · since 4 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W0 D1 L5

~~Table places · points 17 v 10~~4 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Rilindja 1974 win	37%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Vëllaznimi win	36%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	51%	–	–
Both teams to score	55%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	30%	–	–
Rilindja 1974 or draw	64%	–	–
Rilindja 1974 clean sheet	27%	–	–
Vëllaznimi clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 8.1 7.8 6.0 2.8 1 7.9 12.7 7.8 3.6 2 6.1 7.9 5.3 2.5 3 2.9 3.8 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Rilindja 1974 down, Vëllaznimi across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 385 Liga E Pare matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga E Pare matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.5% of games this season, across 80 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Rilindja 1974 at home: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Vëllaznimi away: 1.83 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.40 goals for Rilindja 1974, 1.36 for Vëllaznimi. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~RIL 1–1 VEL · VEL 2–1 RIL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga E Pare this season · since 4 Sept

RILINDJA 1974

DWWWLW1–1 · 3–0 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 1–0

VËLLAZNIMI

LLLDLL0–4 · 1–3 · 1–5 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Dinamo Ferizaj	9	+12	19
2	Prishtina e Re	9	+6	18
3	Liria Prizren	8	+5	17
4	Rilindja 1974	9	+4	17
5	Trepça'89	9	+5	16
6	Suhareka	9	+5	13
7	Ferizaj	9	+5	13
8	Istogu	9	−4	13
9	2 Korriku	9	+1	12
10	FC Besa Peja	9	0	11
11	Trepça Mitrovicë	9	−7	11
12	Vjosa	9	+1	10
13	Vëllaznimi	9	−7	10
14	Kika	9	−4	9
15	Ramiz Sadiku	9	−4	8
16	KF Lepenci	9	−4	8
17	Mitrovica	8	−7	4
18	Tefik Canga	9	−7	3