Mitrovica v Trepça'89 prediction · Liga E Pare

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 16:26

Mitrovica 0–0 Trepça'89 TREPÇA'89 WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Trepça'89 win~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.825

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Trepça'89 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Mitrovica 22%, draw 28%, Trepça'89 50%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Mitrovica v Trepça'89Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Mitrovica win22%

Draw28%

Trepça'89 win50%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Mitrovica

Trepça'89

6Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · Liga E Pare

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Trepça'89	9	+5	16
17	Mitrovica	8	−7	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · trepça'89 winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

50% The market–

Us50%

We make Trepça'89 a 50% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Mitrovica v Trepça'89~~0.93 – 1.55

~~Form · last six in Liga E Pare this season · since 30 Aug~~W0 D3 L3 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 4 v 16~~17 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Trepça'89 win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mitrovica win	22%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Trepça'89 win	50%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	45%	–	–
Both teams to score	47%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	71%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	24%	–	–
Mitrovica or draw	50%	–	–
Mitrovica clean sheet	22%	–	–
Trepça'89 clean sheet	41%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 10.1 12.0 9.9 5.2 2.1 1 6.9 12.7 8.8 4.6 2 3.7 5.4 4.1 2.1 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Mitrovica down, Trepça'89 across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 385 Liga E Pare matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga E Pare matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.5% of games this season, across 80 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Mitrovica at home: 0.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 3). Trepça'89 away: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.93 goals for Mitrovica, 1.55 for Trepça'89. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga E Pare this season · since 30 Aug

MITROVICA

DDDLLL0–0 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–4 · 0–1

TREPÇA'89

DDWDLW1–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Dinamo Ferizaj	9	+12	19
2	Prishtina e Re	9	+6	18
3	Liria Prizren	8	+5	17
4	Rilindja 1974	9	+4	17
5	Trepça'89	9	+5	16
6	Suhareka	9	+5	13
7	Ferizaj	9	+5	13
8	Istogu	9	−4	13
9	2 Korriku	9	+1	12
10	FC Besa Peja	9	0	11
11	Trepça Mitrovicë	9	−7	11
12	Vjosa	9	+1	10
13	Vëllaznimi	9	−7	10
14	Kika	9	−4	9
15	Ramiz Sadiku	9	−4	8
16	KF Lepenci	9	−4	8
17	Mitrovica	8	−7	4
18	Tefik Canga	9	−7	3