Mitrovica v Istogu prediction · Liga E Pare

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

MitrovicaDrawIstogu

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Mitrovica 40%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Mitrovica are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Mitrovica 40%, draw 28%, Istogu 32%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Mitrovica v IstoguBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 23 Oct 15:33 · locked at kick-off

Mitrovica win40%

Draw28%

Istogu win32%

Kick-offMON 26 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Mitrovica

Istogu

5Days since last match5

Last match: 21 Oct · Liga E Pare

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Istogu	11	−4	16
18	Mitrovica	10	−10	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · mitrovica winFirst published 23 Oct 15:33 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Mitrovica a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Mitrovica v Istogu~~1.36 – 1.20

~~Form · last six in Liga E Pare this season · since 11 Sept~~W0 D2 L4 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 5 v 16~~18 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mitrovica win	40%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Istogu win	32%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	47%	–	–
Both teams to score	52%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	73%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	26%	–	–
Mitrovica or draw	68%	–	–
Mitrovica clean sheet	31%	–	–
Istogu clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 9.3 8.4 5.6 2.3 1 9.6 13.1 7.2 3.0 2 7.1 8.1 4.8 3 3.3 3.8 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Mitrovica down, Istogu across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 403 Liga E Pare matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga E Pare matches have gone over 2.5 in 38.8% of games this season, across 98 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Mitrovica at home: 0.50 scored, 0.75 conceded a game (last 4). Istogu away: 0.50 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.36 goals for Mitrovica, 1.20 for Istogu. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga E Pare this season · since 11 Sept

MITROVICA

DLLLDL1–1 · 0–1 · 1–4 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 0–3

ISTOGU

LDWWLW1–2 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 3–2 · 0–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Prishtina e Re	11	+9	24
2	Liria Prizren	10	+10	23
3	Rilindja 1974	11	+7	21
4	Trepça'89	11	+6	20
5	Ferizaj	11	+10	19
6	Dinamo Ferizaj	11	+8	19
7	Suhareka	11	+5	16
8	Istogu	11	−4	16
9	2 Korriku	11	0	15
10	Vjosa	11	+4	14
11	Vëllaznimi	11	−5	14
12	FC Besa Peja	11	−2	12
13	Trepça Mitrovicë	11	−10	11
14	Ramiz Sadiku	11	−5	9
15	KF Lepenci	11	−6	9
16	Kika	11	−9	9
17	Tefik Canga	11	−8	6
18	Mitrovica	10	−10	5