KF Lepenci v Liria Prizren prediction · Liga E Pare

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

KF LepenciDrawLiria Prizren

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Liria Prizren 50%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Liria Prizren are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: KF Lepenci 21%, draw 29%, Liria Prizren 50%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on KF Lepenci v Liria PrizrenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 23 Oct 15:33 · locked at kick-off

KF Lepenci win21%

Draw29%

Liria Prizren win50%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

KF Lepenci

Liria Prizren

4Days since last match4

Last match: 21 Oct · Liga E Pare

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Liria Prizren	10	+10	23
15	KF Lepenci	11	−6	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · liria prizren winFirst published 23 Oct 15:33 · locked at kick-off

50% The market–

Us50%

We make Liria Prizren a 50% chance to win. The model expects 0.8–1.4, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · KF Lepenci v Liria Prizren~~0.80 – 1.42

~~Form · last six in Liga E Pare this season · since 11 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 9 v 23~~15 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
KF Lepenci win	21%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Liria Prizren win	50%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	38%	–	–
Both teams to score	41%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	65%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	19%	–	–
KF Lepenci or draw	50%	–	–
KF Lepenci clean sheet	25%	–	–
Liria Prizren clean sheet	46%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 14.5%

0123450 12.6 14.5 10.8 5.2 1 7.8 12.8 8.2 4.0 2 3.6 4.8 3.3 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+KF Lepenci down, Liria Prizren across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 405 Liga E Pare matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga E Pare matches have gone over 2.5 in 38.0% of games this season, across 100 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

KF Lepenci at home: 0.67 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Liria Prizren away: 1.33 scored, 0.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.80 goals for KF Lepenci, 1.42 for Liria Prizren. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga E Pare this season · since 11 Sept

KF LEPENCI

LLWDDL1–2 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 1–3

LIRIA PRIZREN

WWWDWW3–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 4–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Prishtina e Re	12	+9	25
2	Liria Prizren	10	+10	23
3	Rilindja 1974	11	+7	21
4	Trepça'89	11	+6	20
5	Ferizaj	11	+10	19
6	Dinamo Ferizaj	11	+8	19
7	Vëllaznimi	12	−4	17
8	Suhareka	11	+5	16
9	Istogu	11	−4	16
10	2 Korriku	11	0	15
11	Vjosa	11	+4	14
12	FC Besa Peja	11	−2	12
13	Trepça Mitrovicë	11	−10	11
14	Ramiz Sadiku	12	−6	9
15	KF Lepenci	11	−6	9
16	Kika	11	−9	9
17	Tefik Canga	12	−8	7
18	Mitrovica	10	−10	5