KF Lepenci v FC Besa Peja prediction · Liga E Pare

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 16:26

KF Lepenci 2–2 FC Besa Peja KF LEPENCI WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said KF Lepenci win~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.743

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

KF Lepenci are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: KF Lepenci 40%, draw 30%, FC Besa Peja 30%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on KF Lepenci v FC Besa PejaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

KF Lepenci win40%

Draw30%

FC Besa Peja win30%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

KF Lepenci

FC Besa Peja

7Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · Liga E Pare

Last match: 11 Oct · Liga E Pare

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	FC Besa Peja	9	0	11
16	KF Lepenci	9	−4	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kf lepenci winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 00:10 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make KF Lepenci a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · KF Lepenci v FC Besa Peja~~1.28 – 1.09

~~Form · last six in Liga E Pare this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 8 v 11~~16 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · KF Lepenci win

Published at 39%, 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
KF Lepenci win	40%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
FC Besa Peja win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	42%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	69%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	22%	–	–
KF Lepenci or draw	70%	–	–
KF Lepenci clean sheet	35%	–	–
FC Besa Peja clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.6%

0123450 11.1 9.1 5.5 2.1 1 10.9 13.6 6.7 2.5 2 7.7 7.9 4.3 3 3.4 3.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+KF Lepenci down, FC Besa Peja across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 385 Liga E Pare matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga E Pare matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.5% of games this season, across 80 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

KF Lepenci at home: 0.40 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 5). FC Besa Peja away: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.28 goals for KF Lepenci, 1.09 for FC Besa Peja. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga E Pare this season · since 5 Sept

KF LEPENCI

DDLLWD1–1 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 0–0

FC BESA PEJA

DLWDLW0–0 · 2–3 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 6–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Dinamo Ferizaj	9	+12	19
2	Prishtina e Re	9	+6	18
3	Liria Prizren	8	+5	17
4	Rilindja 1974	9	+4	17
5	Trepça'89	9	+5	16
6	Suhareka	9	+5	13
7	Ferizaj	9	+5	13
8	Istogu	9	−4	13
9	2 Korriku	9	+1	12
10	FC Besa Peja	9	0	11
11	Trepça Mitrovicë	9	−7	11
12	Vjosa	9	+1	10
13	Vëllaznimi	9	−7	10
14	Kika	9	−4	9
15	Ramiz Sadiku	9	−4	8
16	KF Lepenci	9	−4	8
17	Mitrovica	8	−7	4
18	Tefik Canga	9	−7	3