Istogu v Ramiz Sadiku prediction · Liga E Pare

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 15:31

Istogu 1–0 Ramiz Sadiku ISTOGU WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Istogu win~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.534

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Istogu are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Istogu 40%, draw 28%, Ramiz Sadiku 32%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Istogu v Ramiz SadikuBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 16:01 · locked at kick-off

Istogu win40%

Draw28%

Ramiz Sadiku win32%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Istogu

Ramiz Sadiku

4Days since last match4

Last match: 17 Oct · Liga E Pare

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Istogu	10	−5	13
14	Ramiz Sadiku	10	−4	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · istogu winFirst published 20 Oct 16:01 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Istogu a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Istogu v Ramiz Sadiku~~1.42 – 1.22

~~Form · last six in Liga E Pare this season · since 11 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 13 v 9~~9 v 14

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Istogu win	40%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Ramiz Sadiku win	32%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	48%	–	–
Both teams to score	53%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	27%	–	–
Istogu or draw	68%	–	–
Istogu clean sheet	31%	–	–
Ramiz Sadiku clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%

0123450 8.9 7.9 5.4 2.3 1 9.2 13.0 7.2 3.0 2 7.1 8.2 5.0 2.1 3 3.4 4.0 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Istogu down, Ramiz Sadiku across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 394 Liga E Pare matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga E Pare matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.1% of games this season, across 89 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Istogu at home: 2.17 scored, 2.50 conceded a game (last 6). Ramiz Sadiku away: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.42 goals for Istogu, 1.22 for Ramiz Sadiku. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~RAM 2–1 IST · IST 2–2 RAM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga E Pare this season · since 11 Sept

ISTOGU

LLDWWL0–2 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 3–2 · 0–1

RAMIZ SADIKU

WLLDLD3–2 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 1–3 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Prishtina e Re	10	+7	21
2	Liria Prizren	9	+6	20
3	Dinamo Ferizaj	10	+9	19
4	Rilindja 1974	10	+4	18
5	Trepça'89	10	+5	17
6	Suhareka	10	+8	16
7	Ferizaj	10	+8	16
8	2 Korriku	10	+2	15
9	Istogu	10	−5	13
10	FC Besa Peja	10	0	12
11	Vjosa	10	+1	11
12	Vëllaznimi	10	−7	11
13	Trepça Mitrovicë	10	−8	11
14	Ramiz Sadiku	10	−4	9
15	KF Lepenci	10	−4	9
16	Kika	10	−5	9
17	Mitrovica	9	−7	5
18	Tefik Canga	10	−10	3