Ferizaj v Trepça Mitrovicë prediction · Liga E Pare

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 15:31

Ferizaj 2–0 Trepça Mitrovicë FERIZAJ WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Ferizaj win~~67%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.169

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ferizaj are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ferizaj 67%, draw 21%, Trepça Mitrovicë 12%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Ferizaj v Trepça MitrovicëBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 16:01 · locked at kick-off

Ferizaj win67%

Draw21%

Trepça Mitrovicë win12%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ferizaj

Trepça Mitrovicë

4Days since last match3

Last match: 17 Oct · Liga E Pare

Last match: 18 Oct · Liga E Pare

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Ferizaj	10	+8	16
13	Trepça Mitrovicë	10	−8	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ferizaj winFirst published 20 Oct 16:01 · locked at kick-off

67% The market–

Us67%

We make Ferizaj a 67% chance to win. The model expects 2.1–0.7, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ferizaj v Trepça Mitrovicë~~2.08 – 0.73

~~Form · last six in Liga E Pare this season · since 11 Sept~~W4 D2 L0 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 16 v 11~~7 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ferizaj win	67%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Trepça Mitrovicë win	12%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	52%	–	–
Both teams to score	45%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	31%	–	–
Ferizaj or draw	88%	–	–
Ferizaj clean sheet	49%	–	–
Trepça Mitrovicë clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 12.7%

0123450 7.5 3.9 1 12.0 9.8 3.4 2 12.7 8.9 3.3 3 8.7 6.1 2.2 4 4.7 3.2 5 2.1

under 2% 5% 12%+Ferizaj down, Trepça Mitrovicë across0–5 goals a side shown (97.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 394 Liga E Pare matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga E Pare matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.1% of games this season, across 89 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2025/26.

Home and away form

Ferizaj at home: 0.75 scored, 0.25 conceded a game (last 4). Trepça Mitrovicë away: 0.67 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.08 goals for Ferizaj, 0.73 for Trepça Mitrovicë. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2025/26

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2025/26.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga E Pare this season · since 11 Sept

FERIZAJ

WWDDWW2–0 · 5–1 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 4–1

TREPÇA MITROVICË

DWLWLL0–0 · 1–0 · 1–4 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Prishtina e Re	10	+7	21
2	Liria Prizren	9	+6	20
3	Dinamo Ferizaj	10	+9	19
4	Rilindja 1974	10	+4	18
5	Trepça'89	10	+5	17
6	Suhareka	10	+8	16
7	Ferizaj	10	+8	16
8	2 Korriku	10	+2	15
9	Istogu	10	−5	13
10	FC Besa Peja	10	0	12
11	Vjosa	10	+1	11
12	Vëllaznimi	10	−7	11
13	Trepça Mitrovicë	10	−8	11
14	Ramiz Sadiku	10	−4	9
15	KF Lepenci	10	−4	9
16	Kika	10	−5	9
17	Mitrovica	9	−7	5
18	Tefik Canga	10	−10	3