FC Besa Peja v Tefik Canga prediction · Liga E Pare

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 15:31

FC Besa Peja 1–3 Tefik Canga FC BESA PEJA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FC Besa Peja win~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.037

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FC Besa Peja are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: FC Besa Peja 58%, draw 23%, Tefik Canga 19%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on FC Besa Peja v Tefik CangaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 16:01 · locked at kick-off

FC Besa Peja win58%

Draw23%

Tefik Canga win19%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FC Besa Peja

Tefik Canga

4Days since last match3

Last match: 17 Oct · Liga E Pare

Last match: 18 Oct · Liga E Pare

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	FC Besa Peja	10	0	12
18	Tefik Canga	10	−10	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fc besa peja winFirst published 20 Oct 16:01 · locked at kick-off

58% The market–

Us58%

We make FC Besa Peja a 58% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · FC Besa Peja v Tefik Canga~~2.00 – 1.04

~~Form · last six in Liga E Pare this season · since 11 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W0 D1 L5

~~Table places · points 12 v 3~~10 v 18

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Besa Peja win	58%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Tefik Canga win	19%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	57%	–	–
Both teams to score	55%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	80%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	36%	–	–
FC Besa Peja or draw	81%	–	–
FC Besa Peja clean sheet	36%	–	–
Tefik Canga clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.7%

0123450 6.4 4.5 2.9 1 8.9 10.7 5.1 2 9.3 9.2 4.8 3 6.1 6.0 3.1 4 3.2 3.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Besa Peja down, Tefik Canga across0–5 goals a side shown (97.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 394 Liga E Pare matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Liga E Pare matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.1% of games this season, across 89 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FC Besa Peja at home: 2.17 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Tefik Canga away: 1.17 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.00 goals for FC Besa Peja, 1.04 for Tefik Canga. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~FCB 3–1 TEF · TEF 2–1 FCB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Liga E Pare this season · since 11 Sept

FC BESA PEJA

LWDLWD2–3 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 6–4 · 2–2

TEFIK CANGA

LLDLLL0–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Prishtina e Re	10	+7	21
2	Liria Prizren	9	+6	20
3	Dinamo Ferizaj	10	+9	19
4	Rilindja 1974	10	+4	18
5	Trepça'89	10	+5	17
6	Suhareka	10	+8	16
7	Ferizaj	10	+8	16
8	2 Korriku	10	+2	15
9	Istogu	10	−5	13
10	FC Besa Peja	10	0	12
11	Vjosa	10	+1	11
12	Vëllaznimi	10	−7	11
13	Trepça Mitrovicë	10	−8	11
14	Ramiz Sadiku	10	−4	9
15	KF Lepenci	10	−4	9
16	Kika	10	−5	9
17	Mitrovica	9	−7	5
18	Tefik Canga	10	−10	3