MOFA v Nairobi City Stars prediction · Super League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

MOFADrawNairobi City Stars

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 10:00

Before kick-off · Match result · MOFA 64%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

MOFA are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: MOFA 64%, draw 22%, Nairobi City Stars 14%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 37%.

The AI’s read on MOFA v Nairobi City StarsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 09:31 · locked at kick-off

MOFA win64%

Draw22%

Nairobi City Stars win14%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 10:00

RoundMatchday 1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

MOFA

Nairobi City Stars

134Days since last match134

Last match: 13 June · Super League (Kenya)

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Nairobi City Stars	0	0	0
13	MOFA	0	0	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · mofa winFirst published 20 Oct 09:31 · locked at kick-off

64% The market–

Us64%

We make MOFA a 64% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–0.6, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 17%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · MOFA v Nairobi City Stars~~1.72 – 0.63

~~Table places · points 0 v 0~~13 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
MOFA win	64%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Nairobi City Stars win	14%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	41%	–	–
Both teams to score	37%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	67%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	21%	–	–
MOFA or draw	86%	–	–
MOFA clean sheet	54%	–	–
Nairobi City Stars clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 16.9%

0123450 9.8 6.7 2.0 1 16.9 9.6 3.2 2 13.7 8.3 2.7 3 7.9 4.8 4 3.6 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+MOFA down, Nairobi City Stars across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,083 Super League matches up to 13 Jun 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Super League matches have gone over 2.5 in 34.8% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

MOFA at home: 2.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Nairobi City Stars away: 0.67 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.72 goals for MOFA, 0.63 for Nairobi City Stars. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~NAI 1–1 MOF · MOF 1–0 NAI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Super League this season

MOFA

No matches in our record yet.

NAIROBI CITY STARS

No matches in our record yet.

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sofapaka	0	0	0
2	Nairobi City Stars	0	0	0
3	Kariobangi Sharks	0	0	0
4	Nzoia Sugar	0	0	0
5	Naivas	0	0	0
6	Kibera Black Stars	0	0	0
7	Talanta	0	0	0
8	Kisumu All Stars	0	0	0
9	Fortune Sacco	0	0	0
10	Soy United	0	0	0
11	Equity Bank	0	0	0
12	Luanda Villa	0	0	0
13	MOFA	0	0	0
14	Kibera Soccer	0	0	0
15	Kabati Youth FC	0	0	0
16	Gucha Stars	0	0	0
17	Mfalme	0	0	0
18	Kiminini Combined	0	0	0
19	BB FC	0	0	0
20	Spitfire FC	0	0	0