Luanda Villa v Equity Bank prediction · Super League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Luanda VillaDrawEquity Bank

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Equity Bank 44%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Equity Bank are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Luanda Villa 28%, draw 28%, Equity Bank 44%. Over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on Luanda Villa v Equity BankBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 09:31 · locked at kick-off

Luanda Villa win28%

Draw28%

Equity Bank win44%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Luanda Villa

Equity Bank

134Days since last match134

Last match: 13 June · Super League (Kenya)

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Equity Bank	0	0	0
12	Luanda Villa	0	0	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · equity bank winFirst published 20 Oct 09:31 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Equity Bank a 44% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–1.3, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Luanda Villa v Equity Bank~~0.92 – 1.26

~~Table places · points 0 v 0~~12 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Luanda Villa win	28%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Equity Bank win	44%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	37%	–	–
Both teams to score	41%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	63%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	18%	–	–
Luanda Villa or draw	56%	–	–
Luanda Villa clean sheet	29%	–	–
Equity Bank clean sheet	40%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 14.7%

0123450 11.3 14.7 8.8 3.8 1 11.2 12.1 7.8 3.3 2 4.9 5.9 3.6 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Luanda Villa down, Equity Bank across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,083 Super League matches up to 13 Jun 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Super League matches have gone over 2.5 in 34.8% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Luanda Villa at home: 0.67 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Equity Bank away: 2.33 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.92 goals for Luanda Villa, 1.26 for Equity Bank. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~EQU 1–0 LUA · LUA 1–1 EQU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Super League this season

LUANDA VILLA

No matches in our record yet.

EQUITY BANK

No matches in our record yet.

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sofapaka	0	0	0
2	Nairobi City Stars	0	0	0
3	Kariobangi Sharks	0	0	0
4	Nzoia Sugar	0	0	0
5	Naivas	0	0	0
6	Kibera Black Stars	0	0	0
7	Talanta	0	0	0
8	Kisumu All Stars	0	0	0
9	Fortune Sacco	0	0	0
10	Soy United	0	0	0
11	Equity Bank	0	0	0
12	Luanda Villa	0	0	0
13	MOFA	0	0	0
14	Kibera Soccer	0	0	0
15	Kabati Youth FC	0	0	0
16	Gucha Stars	0	0	0
17	Mfalme	0	0	0
18	Kiminini Combined	0	0	0
19	BB FC	0	0	0
20	Spitfire FC	0	0	0