Kibera Black Stars v Naivas prediction · Super League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Kibera Black StarsDrawNaivas

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Kibera Black Stars 36%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Kibera Black Stars just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Kibera Black Stars 36%, draw 31%, Naivas 33%. Over 2.5 goals 30%, both teams to score 36%.

The AI’s read on Kibera Black Stars v NaivasBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 09:31 · locked at kick-off

Kibera Black Stars win36%

Draw31%

Naivas win33%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kibera Black Stars

Naivas

134Days since last match134

Last match: 13 June · Super League (Kenya)

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Naivas	0	0	0
6	Kibera Black Stars	0	0	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kibera black stars winFirst published 20 Oct 09:31 · locked at kick-off

36% The market–

Us36%

We make Kibera Black Stars a 36% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kibera Black Stars v Naivas~~0.98 – 0.93

~~Table places · points 0 v 0~~6 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kibera Black Stars win	36%	–	–
Draw	31%	–	–
Naivas win	33%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	30%	–	–
Both teams to score	36%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	56%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	13%	–	–
Kibera Black Stars or draw	67%	–	–
Kibera Black Stars clean sheet	40%	–	–
Naivas clean sheet	38%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.1%

0123450 14.9 14.4 6.4 2.0 1 15.1 12.4 6.0 2 7.1 6.4 3.0 3 2.4 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kibera Black Stars down, Naivas across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,083 Super League matches up to 13 Jun 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Super League matches have gone over 2.5 in 34.8% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.40 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kibera Black Stars at home: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Naivas away: 1.33 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.98 goals for Kibera Black Stars, 0.93 for Naivas. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.40

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~NAI 2–1 KIB · KIB 1–1 NAI · KIB 0–1 NAI · NAI 0–0 KIB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Super League this season

KIBERA BLACK STARS

No matches in our record yet.

NAIVAS

No matches in our record yet.

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sofapaka	0	0	0
2	Nairobi City Stars	0	0	0
3	Kariobangi Sharks	0	0	0
4	Nzoia Sugar	0	0	0
5	Naivas	0	0	0
6	Kibera Black Stars	0	0	0
7	Talanta	0	0	0
8	Kisumu All Stars	0	0	0
9	Fortune Sacco	0	0	0
10	Soy United	0	0	0
11	Equity Bank	0	0	0
12	Luanda Villa	0	0	0
13	MOFA	0	0	0
14	Kibera Soccer	0	0	0
15	Kabati Youth FC	0	0	0
16	Gucha Stars	0	0	0
17	Mfalme	0	0	0
18	Kiminini Combined	0	0	0
19	BB FC	0	0	0
20	Spitfire FC	0	0	0