Zhetysu v FK Tobol Kostanay prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 14:04

Zhetysu 1–1 FK Tobol Kostanay FK TOBOL KOSTANAY WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FK Tobol Kostanay win~~49%

~~The market said~~31%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.873

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.807

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FK Tobol Kostanay win at 49%.
1′Little has changed for our model: FK Tobol Kostanay 49% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 26–25–49
1′KICK-OFF Zhetysu v FK Tobol Kostanay
13′We said FK Tobol Kostanay at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 22%. 1–0 · 53–25–22
13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Zhetysu 1–0 FK Tobol Kostanay
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 13' FK Tobol Kostanay win: 49% at kick-off, 22% now
13′THE CALL SWINGS · 13' Zhetysu win is now our likeliest result at 53% (was FK Tobol Kostanay win 47%)
14′Zhetysu find the net on 14′. 1–0. 1–0 · 53–25–22
22′We said FK Tobol Kostanay at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 55–25–19
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' FK Tobol Kostanay win: 49% at kick-off, 19% now
27′🟨 YELLOW · 27' FK Tobol Kostanay
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 57–26–17
31′🟨 YELLOW · 27' T. Mosiashvili · Zhetysu
39′We said FK Tobol Kostanay at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 60–26–14
42′🟨 YELLOW · 41' FK Tobol Kostanay
45′HALF-TIME Zhetysu 1–0 FK Tobol Kostanay
46′SECOND HALF Zhetysu 1–0 FK Tobol Kostanay
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' FK Tobol Kostanay · On: A. Zuev · Off: R. Senhadji
54′We said FK Tobol Kostanay at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 66–25–9
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' FK Tobol Kostanay win: 49% at kick-off, 9% now
68′We said FK Tobol Kostanay at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 75–21–4
70′SUBSTITUTION · 67' FK Tobol Kostanay · On: U. Milovanovic · Off: Z. Zhumashev
71′FK Tobol Kostanay find the net on 71′. 1–0 · 77–20–4
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Zhetysu 1–1 FK Tobol Kostanay
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' FK Tobol Kostanay win: 49% at kick-off, 23% now
71′THE CALL SWINGS · 71' Draw is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Zhetysu win 77%)
73′A. Talal scores for FK Tobol Kostanay on 70′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 14–65–21
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' FK Tobol Kostanay win: 49% at kick-off, 19% now
80′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Zhetysu · On: M. Zhakipbayev · Off: T. Mosiashvili
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' FK Tobol Kostanay · On: D. Zhumat · Off: A. Tagybergen
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Zhetysu · On: V. Shvyrev · Off: S. Abzalov
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' FK Tobol Kostanay win: 49% at kick-off, 9% now
92′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Zhetysu · On: S. Anuarbek · Off: N. Anuarbekov
94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' Zhetysu
FTFULL TIME Zhetysu 1–1 FK Tobol Kostanay
FTZhetysu 1–1 FK Tobol Kostanay · FK Tobol Kostanay win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FK Tobol Kostanay are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Zhetysu 26%, draw 25%, FK Tobol Kostanay 49%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Zhetysu v FK Tobol KostanayBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Zhetysu win26%

Draw25%

FK Tobol Kostanay win49%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 29

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Zhetysu

FK Tobol Kostanay

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · the Kazakh Premier League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	FK Tobol Kostanay	28	+1	40
15	Zhetysu	28	−18	25

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fk tobol kostanay winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

49% The market31%

Us49%

~~Market~~31%

We make FK Tobol Kostanay a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 31%. We are 18 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Zhetysu v FK Tobol Kostanay~~1.04 – 1.54

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 29 Aug~~W2 D0 L4 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 25 v 40~~15 v 7

~~The market · FK Tobol Kostanay win~~31% · ours 49%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · FK Tobol Kostanay win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 31% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Zhetysu win	26%	42%	−16
Draw	25%	27%	−2
FK Tobol Kostanay win	49%	31%	+18
Over 2.5 goals	48%	50%	−2
Both teams to score	50%	54%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	72%	73%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	26%	30%	−4
Zhetysu or draw	51%	69%	−18
Zhetysu clean sheet	22%	–	–
FK Tobol Kostanay clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 12.0%

0123450 7.5 12.0 9.0 4.7 1 8.2 11.7 9.2 4.7 2 4.1 6.2 4.8 2.4 3 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Zhetysu down, FK Tobol Kostanay across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,108 Premier League matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.6% of games this season, across 224 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.40 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Zhetysu at home: 0.67 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). FK Tobol Kostanay away: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.04 goals for Zhetysu, 1.54 for FK Tobol Kostanay. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.40

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~FKT 2–2 ZHE · ZHE 1–2 FKT · FKT 2–1 ZHE · FKT 0–0 ZHE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 29 Aug

ZHETYSU

LWLLLW0–3 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 2–1

FK TOBOL KOSTANAY

LWWLWW0–1 · 3–1 · 4–1 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 4–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ordabasy	28	+38	67
2	Kairat Almaty	28	+37	63
3	FC Astana	28	+17	52
4	Okzhetpes	28	+5	48
5	Aktobe	28	+7	45
6	Yelimay Semey	28	+2	44
7	FK Tobol Kostanay	28	+1	40
8	Ulytau	28	−7	35
9	Kaspiy	28	−8	33
10	Zhenys	28	−9	32
11	Atyrau	28	−10	27
12	Kyzyl-Zhar	28	−13	27
13	Altay	28	−11	26
14	Irtysh	28	−16	26
15	Zhetysu	28	−18	25
16	Kaisar	28	−15	24