Zhetysu v FC Astana prediction · Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

ZhetysuDrawFC Astana

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 10:00

Before kick-off · Match result · FC Astana 60%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FC Astana are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Zhetysu 19%, draw 22%, FC Astana 60%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Zhetysu v FC AstanaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Zhetysu win19%

Draw22%

FC Astana win60%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 10:00

RoundMatchday 30

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Zhetysu

FC Astana

7Days since last match13

Last match: 24 Oct · the Kazakh Premier League

Last match: 18 Oct · the Kazakh Premier League

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	FC Astana	28	+17	52
15	Zhetysu	29	−18	26

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fc astana winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

60% The market–

Us60%

We make FC Astana a 60% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–1.9, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Zhetysu v FC Astana~~0.94 – 1.89

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 26 v 52~~15 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Zhetysu win	19%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
FC Astana win	60%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	54%	–	–
Both teams to score	51%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	32%	–	–
Zhetysu or draw	40%	–	–
Zhetysu clean sheet	15%	–	–
FC Astana clean sheet	39%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 11.3%

0123450 5.9 11.3 10.5 6.6 3.2 1 5.8 10.2 9.7 6.1 2.9 2 2.7 4.9 4.6 2.9 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Zhetysu down, FC Astana across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,112 Premier League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.1% of games this season, across 228 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Zhetysu at home: 0.83 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). FC Astana away: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.94 goals for Zhetysu, 1.89 for FC Astana. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~FCA 4–1 ZHE · ZHE 0–2 FCA · FCA 3–0 ZHE · FCA 5–0 ZHE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 5 Sept

ZHETYSU

WLLLWD1–0 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 1–1

FC ASTANA

WLWLWD4–0 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 2–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ordabasy	29	+38	68
2	Kairat Almaty	28	+37	63
3	FC Astana	28	+17	52
4	Okzhetpes	29	+8	51
5	Aktobe	28	+7	45
6	Yelimay Semey	28	+2	44
7	FK Tobol Kostanay	29	+1	41
8	Ulytau	29	−8	35
9	Zhenys	29	−9	33
10	Kaspiy	29	−11	33
11	Kyzyl-Zhar	29	−12	30
12	Atyrau	28	−10	27
13	Altay	28	−11	26
14	Irtysh	28	−16	26
15	Zhetysu	29	−18	26
16	Kaisar	28	−15	24