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Zhenys v Atyrau

Zhenys

1–2Full time

Atyrau

Premier League · SAT 10 OCT · Astana Arena

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Zhenys 1–2 Atyrau ZHENYS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Zhenys win~~47%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.873

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.934

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Zhenys win at 47%.
9′Little has changed for our model: Zhenys 47% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 45–31–24
34′🟨 YELLOW · 31' B. Madelkhan · Zhenys
40′⚽ GOAL · 39' Zhenys 0–1 Atyrau
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Zhenys 0–2 Atyrau
45′HALF-TIME Zhenys 0–2 Atyrau
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Zhenys · On: M. Khaseyn · Off: V. Naumets
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Zhenys · On: A. Saulet · Off: M. Bystrov
48′SECOND HALF Zhenys 0–2 Atyrau
59′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Zhenys
62′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Zhenys · On: P. Kpozo · Off: B. Madelkhan
62′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Zhenys · On: I. Kuat · Off: M. Askarov
69′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Zhenys
69′🟥 RED CARD · 68' Zhenys
80′⚽ GOAL · 79' Zhenys 1–2 Atyrau
81′⚽ GOAL · 79' Zhenys 1–2 Atyrau
82′⚽ GOAL · 79' Zhenys 1–2 Atyrau
84′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Zhenys
88′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Atyrau
90′🟨 YELLOW · 93' Atyrau
90′🟨 YELLOW · 95' Atyrau
FTFULL TIME Zhenys 1–2 Atyrau
FTZhenys 1–2 Atyrau · Zhenys win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Zhenys win47%

Draw29%

Atyrau win24%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · Astana Arena

Referee · B. Abdullaev

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Zhenys

Formation not confirmed

41 M. Plotnikov

4 M. Bystrov

5 Z. Tevzadze

72 M. Askarov

13 S. Tursynbay

18 B. Madelkhan

9 V. Naumets

11 A. Filipovic

88 G. Martins

10 L. Imnadze

19 Adilio

Coach · Vladimir Sliskovic

Substitutes

1 · I. Sotnik

3 · P. Kpozo

7 · I. Kuat

8 · M. Khaseyn

14 · A. Saulet

16 · T. Abuov

17 · A. Adilov

29 · S. Zharynbetov

97 · Y. Besengaliyev

90 · R. Isaev

69 · F. Zhaguparov

Atyrau

Formation not confirmed

1 E. Khatkevich

5 S. Satanov

78 E. Khvalko

71 F. Prce

17 K. Kalmuratov

4 M. Rabiu

15 E. Ofori

20 A. Boranshiev

8 M. Stanic

90 D. Pantelic

44 D. Maksimovic

Coach · Vladimir Cheburin

Substitutes

7 · Henrique

9 · A. Abdulla

10 · R. Dzhumatov

11 · A. Seytkaliev

14 · K. Dorofeev

18 · Y. Trufanov

21 · D. Deputy

23 · B. Shaykhov

25 · S. Zhumagali

35 · N. Tokhtarov

99 · B. Kereev

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Zhenys

Formation not confirmed

41 M. Plotnikov

4 M. Bystrov

5 Z. Tevzadze

72 M. Askarov

13 S. Tursynbay

18 B. Madelkhan

9 V. Naumets

11 A. Filipovic

88 G. Martins

10 L. Imnadze

19 Adilio

Coach · Vladimir Sliskovic

Substitutes

1 · I. Sotnik

3 · P. Kpozo

7 · I. Kuat

8 · M. Khaseyn

14 · A. Saulet

16 · T. Abuov

17 · A. Adilov

29 · S. Zharynbetov

97 · Y. Besengaliyev

90 · R. Isaev

69 · F. Zhaguparov

Atyrau

Formation not confirmed

1 E. Khatkevich

5 S. Satanov

78 E. Khvalko

71 F. Prce

17 K. Kalmuratov

4 M. Rabiu

15 E. Ofori

20 A. Boranshiev

8 M. Stanic

90 D. Pantelic

44 D. Maksimovic

Coach · Vladimir Cheburin

Substitutes

7 · Henrique

9 · A. Abdulla

10 · R. Dzhumatov

11 · A. Seytkaliev

14 · K. Dorofeev

18 · Y. Trufanov

21 · D. Deputy

23 · B. Shaykhov

25 · S. Zhumagali

35 · N. Tokhtarov

99 · B. Kereev

Our number · zhenys winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

47% The market51%

Us47%

~~Market~~51%

We make Zhenys a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–0.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · zhenys win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 55% to 51% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Zhenys win	47%	51%	−4
Draw	29%	26%	+2
Atyrau win	24%	22%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	35%	45%	−10
Both teams to score	40%	48%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	61%	69%	−8
Over 3.5 goals	16%	24%	−8
Zhenys or draw	76%	78%	−2
Zhenys clean sheet	44%	–	–
Atyrau clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.8%

0123450 12.3 10.4 4.2 1 15.8 12.5 5.3 2 9.9 8.1 3.3 3 4.2 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Zhenys down, Atyrau across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,090 Premier League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.1% of games this season, across 206 played.

Head to head

5 previous meetings, 1.60 goals a meeting; 1 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Zhenys at home: 1.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Atyrau away: 0.67 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.27 goals for Zhenys, 0.82 for Atyrau. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~1.60

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 5

~~Both scored~~2 of 5

~~Last meetings~~ATY 0–0 ZHE · ATY 1–1 ZHE · ZHE 2–0 ATY · ATY 2–1 ZHE

Form · last six in Premier League

ZHENYS

WWLLWL4–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 3–1 · 1–3

ATYRAU

DLLWLL1–1 · 0–2 · 2–3 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ordabasy	26	+33	61
2	Kairat Almaty	26	+31	57
3	FC Astana	25	+17	48
4	Okzhetpes	26	+6	45
5	Aktobe	26	+7	42
6	Yelimay Semey	25	+2	38
7	FK Tobol Kostanay	26	−2	34
8	Zhenys	26	−6	32
9	Ulytau	26	−8	32
10	Kaspiy	26	−9	29
11	Irtysh	25	−8	26
12	Kyzyl-Zhar	26	−11	25
13	Kaisar	26	−11	24
14	Atyrau	25	−10	23
15	Altay	26	−13	23
16	Zhetysu	26	−18	22