Yelimay Semey v Ulytau prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 14:51

Yelimay Semey 2–1 Ulytau YELIMAY SEMEY WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Yelimay Semey win~~58%

~~The market said~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.271

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.266

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Yelimay Semey win at 58%.
1′Much as we predicted: Yelimay Semey was 58% before kick-off and our model makes it 57% now. 0–0 · 57–23–20
1′KICK-OFF Yelimay Semey v Ulytau
22′🟨 YELLOW · 22' Yelimay Semey
32′Yelimay Semey score on 32′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 81–15–5
32′We published Yelimay Semey at 58%. Our model now makes it 81%. 1–0 · 81–15–5
32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Yelimay Semey 1–0 Ulytau
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Yelimay Semey win: 58% at kick-off, 81% now
33′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 81–15–5
45′HALF-TIME Yelimay Semey 1–0 Ulytau
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Ulytau · On: R. Serikkul · Off: H. Harada
46′SECOND HALF Yelimay Semey 1–0 Ulytau
49′Yelimay Semey find the net on 49′. 2–0. 2–0 · 97–3–0
49′We published Yelimay Semey at 58%. Our model now makes it 97%. 2–0 · 97–3–0
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Yelimay Semey 2–0 Ulytau
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Yelimay Semey win: 58% at kick-off, 97% now
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Yelimay Semey win: 58% at kick-off, 98% now
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Yelimay Semey · On: Z. Payruz · Off: A. Bakhtiyarov
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Yelimay Semey · On: H. Ilic · Off: China
66′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Yelimay Semey · On: F. Placca · Off: A. Zhaksylykov
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Ulytau · On: A. Taubay · Off: A. Bougnone
76′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Yelimay Semey · On: R. Murtazaev · Off: R. Murillo
79′We published Yelimay Semey at 58%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
83′A red card for Yelimay Semey on 83′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 2–0 · 100–0–0
83′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Ulytau · On: D. Maulenov · Off: D. Carmona Sierra
83′🟥 RED CARD · 83' Yelimay Semey
84′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Yelimay Semey
90′A goal for Ulytau on 90′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 97–3–0
90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Ulytau · On: A. Smith · Off: B. Vachiberadze
90′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Yelimay Semey · On: M. Belancic · Off: R. Orazov
90′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' Yelimay Semey 2–1 Ulytau
FTFULL TIME Yelimay Semey 2–1 Ulytau
FTYelimay Semey 2–1 Ulytau · Yelimay Semey win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Yelimay Semey are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Yelimay Semey 58%, draw 23%, Ulytau 20%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Yelimay Semey v UlytauBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Yelimay Semey win58%

Draw23%

Ulytau win20%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 23

VenueStadion Spartak

RefereeR. Sultangaliev

Line-ups

Yelimay Semey

3-5-2

Ulytau

4-1-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Yelimay Semey

Ulytau

4Days since last match7

Last match: 14 Oct · the Kazakh Premier League

Last match: 11 Oct · the Kazakh Premier League

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Yelimay Semey	27	+1	41
8	Ulytau	27	−6	35

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Yelimay Semey

3-5-2

32 I. Konovalov

26 S. Tanasijevic

15 M. Mittendorfer

4 A. Zhumakhanov

20 A. Ashirbek

18 R. Orazov

44 A. Tulubay

89 China

17 A. Bakhtiyarov

19 A. Zhaksylykov

9 R. Murillo

Coach · Andrey Karpovich

Substitutes

1 · E. Tsuprikov

5 · M. Belancic

7 · R. Murtazaev

8 · M. Omatay

10 · Z. Payruz

11 · I. Sviridov

14 · D. Palacio

23 · H. Ilic

77 · F. Placca

88 · A. Baygaliev

Ulytau

4-1-4-1

1 D. Nepogodov

2 D. Carmona Sierra

4 M. Chalkin

25 G. Bukhal

17 B. Daniyarov

8 B. Vachiberadze

90 D. Martin

18 A. Bougnone

45 B. Zulfikarov

14 H. Harada

13 A. Akhmedov

Coach · Nurken Mazbaev

Substitutes

6 · K. Nursultanov

7 · K. Kishi

9 · R. Serikkul

10 · A. Taubay

11 · A. Smith

21 · O. Nurali

22 · I. Chernyak

40 · S. Shcherbakov

69 · D. Maulenov

78 · T. Zakirov

Our number · yelimay semey winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 17 Oct 05:24 · locked at kick-off

58% The market58%

Us58%

~~Market~~58%

We make Yelimay Semey a 58% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.8–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Yelimay Semey v Ulytau~~1.77 – 0.92

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 15 Aug~~W3 D0 L3 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 41 v 35~~6 v 8

~~The market · Yelimay Semey win~~58% · ours 58%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Yelimay Semey win The market, margin stripped

Published at 57%, 58% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 58% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Yelimay Semey win	58%	58%	0
Draw	23%	24%	−1
Ulytau win	20%	18%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	50%	54%	−4
Both teams to score	49%	53%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	74%	76%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	28%	34%	−6
Yelimay Semey or draw	80%	82%	−2
Yelimay Semey clean sheet	40%	–	–
Ulytau clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.3%

0123450 6.7 6.6 2.9 1 12.3 10.7 5.1 2 10.5 9.6 4.4 3 6.2 5.7 2.6 4 2.8 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Yelimay Semey down, Ulytau across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,104 Premier League matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.1% of games this season, across 220 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2024 in every competition we cover, 2.25 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Yelimay Semey at home: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Ulytau away: 1.00 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.77 goals for Yelimay Semey, 0.92 for Ulytau. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 18 Oct 11:32. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~ULY 1–0 YEL · ULY 1–1 YEL · ULY 0–3 YEL · YEL 3–0 ULY

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 15 Aug

YELIMAY SEMEY

LLWWLW0–2 · 0–4 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 1–3 · 2–1

ULYTAU

LWLLDW1–3 · 3–0 · 1–3 · 0–3 · 2–2 · 2–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ordabasy	27	+35	64
2	Kairat Almaty	26	+33	60
3	FC Astana	26	+16	48
4	Okzhetpes	28	+5	48
5	Aktobe	28	+7	45
6	Yelimay Semey	27	+1	41
7	FK Tobol Kostanay	28	+1	40
8	Ulytau	27	−6	35
9	Kaspiy	27	−8	32
10	Zhenys	28	−9	32
11	Kyzyl-Zhar	28	−10	28
12	Atyrau	26	−7	26
13	Irtysh	27	−11	26
14	Zhetysu	28	−18	25
15	Kaisar	28	−15	24
16	Altay	27	−14	23