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Yelimay Semey v Aktobe

Yelimay Semey

1–3Full time

Aktobe

Premier League · SAT 10 OCT · Stadion Spartak

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 14:35

Yelimay Semey 1–3 Aktobe YELIMAY SEMEY WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Yelimay Semey win~~44%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.718

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.730

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Yelimay Semey win at 44%.
1′Much as we predicted: Yelimay Semey was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–25–32
1′KICK-OFF Yelimay Semey v Aktobe
16′⚽ GOAL · 15' Yelimay Semey 0–1 Aktobe · T. Erlanov
19′🟨 YELLOW · 19' Aktobe
22′Aktobe ahead on 15′ through T. Erlanov. 0–1. 0–1 · 18–23–59
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Yelimay Semey win: 44% at kick-off, 18% now
22′THE CALL SWINGS · 22' Aktobe win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Yelimay Semey win 18%)
43′We said Yelimay Semey at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 12%. 0–1 · 12–24–64
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Yelimay Semey win: 44% at kick-off, 12% now
45′HALF-TIME Yelimay Semey 0–1 Aktobe
46′SECOND HALF Yelimay Semey 0–1 Aktobe
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Aktobe · On: D. Topalov · Off: T. Dosmagambetov
50′⚽ GOAL · 49' Yelimay Semey 0–2 Aktobe
64′S. Ojo scores for Aktobe on 49′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 1–5–94
64′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Yelimay Semey · On: R. Murtazaev · Off: A. Zhaksylykov
64′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Yelimay Semey · On: China · Off: A. Zhumakhanov
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Yelimay Semey win: 44% at kick-off, 1% now
66′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Aktobe
66′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Yelimay Semey
66′🟨 YELLOW · 65' S. Ojo · Aktobe
73′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Yelimay Semey · On: R. Murillo · Off: F. Placca
74′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Yelimay Semey
80′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Aktobe · On: D. Sosah · Off: S. Ojo
80′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Aktobe
84′83′ and it is 1–2: Yelimay Semey have scored. 1–2 · 0–9–91
84′⚽ GOAL · 83' Yelimay Semey 1–2 Aktobe
90′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Aktobe · On: A. Tanzharikov · Off: Pibe
90′⚽ GOAL · 89' Yelimay Semey 1–3 Aktobe
90′⚽ GOAL · 89' Yelimay Semey 1–3 Aktobe · A. Shushenachev
90′SUBSTITUTION · 92' Aktobe · On: Nani · Off: A. Shushenachev
FTFULL TIME Yelimay Semey 1–3 Aktobe
FTYelimay Semey 1–3 Aktobe · Yelimay Semey win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Yelimay Semey win44%

Draw24%

Aktobe win32%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 12:00

Venue · Stadion Spartak

Referee · D. Sakhi

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Yelimay Semey

Formation not confirmed

32 I. Konovalov

26 S. Tanasijevic

15 M. Mittendorfer

4 A. Zhumakhanov

20 A. Ashirbek

23 H. Ilic

44 A. Tulubay

18 R. Orazov

17 A. Bakhtiyarov

77 F. Placca

19 A. Zhaksylykov

Coach · Andrey Karpovich

Substitutes

1 · E. Tsuprikov

5 · M. Belancic

7 · R. Murtazaev

8 · M. Omatay

9 · R. Murillo

10 · Z. Payruz

11 · I. Sviridov

14 · D. Palacio

88 · A. Baygaliev

89 · China

Aktobe

Formation not confirmed

16 A. Zarutskiy

5 B. Kairov

23 T. Erlanov

13 S. Miangue

27 T. Dosmagambetov

14 Pibe

6 J. Atanasov

20 G. Zhukov

21 P. Alvarez

9 S. Ojo

11 A. Shushenachev

Coach · Igor Cherevchenko

Substitutes

1 · I. Trofimets

4 · T. Kusyapov

7 · D. Sosah

12 · D. Topalov

17 · Nani

18 · I. Ordets

22 · E. Seydakhmet

29 · M. Kikbaev

31 · A. Tanzharikov

57 · M. Umaniyazov

95 · A. Aymbetov

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Yelimay Semey

Formation not confirmed

32 I. Konovalov

26 S. Tanasijevic

15 M. Mittendorfer

4 A. Zhumakhanov

20 A. Ashirbek

23 H. Ilic

44 A. Tulubay

18 R. Orazov

17 A. Bakhtiyarov

77 F. Placca

19 A. Zhaksylykov

Coach · Andrey Karpovich

Substitutes

1 · E. Tsuprikov

5 · M. Belancic

7 · R. Murtazaev

8 · M. Omatay

9 · R. Murillo

10 · Z. Payruz

11 · I. Sviridov

14 · D. Palacio

88 · A. Baygaliev

89 · China

Aktobe

Formation not confirmed

16 A. Zarutskiy

5 B. Kairov

23 T. Erlanov

13 S. Miangue

27 T. Dosmagambetov

14 Pibe

6 J. Atanasov

20 G. Zhukov

21 P. Alvarez

9 S. Ojo

11 A. Shushenachev

Coach · Igor Cherevchenko

Substitutes

1 · I. Trofimets

4 · T. Kusyapov

7 · D. Sosah

12 · D. Topalov

17 · Nani

18 · I. Ordets

22 · E. Seydakhmet

29 · M. Kikbaev

31 · A. Tanzharikov

57 · M. Umaniyazov

95 · A. Aymbetov

Our number · yelimay semey winPublished 10 Oct 12:19

44% The market43%

Us44%

~~Market~~43%

We make Yelimay Semey a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.6–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · yelimay semey win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 46% to 43% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Yelimay Semey win	44%	43%	+1
Draw	24%	26%	−2
Aktobe win	32%	31%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	55%	57%	−1
Both teams to score	58%	60%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	78%	79%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	33%	36%	−3
Yelimay Semey or draw	68%	69%	−1
Yelimay Semey clean sheet	27%	–	–
Aktobe clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.1%

0123450 5.4 7.4 4.7 2.1 1 8.9 11.1 7.4 3.3 2 6.9 9.0 5.9 2.6 3 3.7 4.8 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Yelimay Semey down, Aktobe across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,090 Premier League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.1% of games this season, across 206 played.

Head to head

5 previous meetings, 3.40 goals a meeting; 4 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Yelimay Semey at home: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Aktobe away: 1.83 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.59 goals for Yelimay Semey, 1.32 for Aktobe. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~3.40

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 5

~~Both scored~~4 of 5

~~Last meetings~~AKT 1–4 YEL · YEL 2–1 AKT · AKT 1–0 YEL · AKT 1–3 YEL

Form · last six in Premier League

YELIMAY SEMEY

WDLLWW3–1 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 0–4 · 2–1 · 2–0

AKTOBE

DWLWWD1–1 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 2–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ordabasy	26	+33	61
2	Kairat Almaty	26	+31	57
3	FC Astana	25	+17	48
4	Okzhetpes	26	+6	45
5	Aktobe	26	+7	42
6	Yelimay Semey	25	+2	38
7	FK Tobol Kostanay	26	−2	34
8	Zhenys	26	−6	32
9	Ulytau	26	−8	32
10	Kaspiy	26	−9	29
11	Irtysh	25	−8	26
12	Kyzyl-Zhar	26	−11	25
13	Kaisar	26	−11	24
14	Atyrau	25	−10	23
15	Altay	26	−13	23
16	Zhetysu	26	−18	22