Ulytau v Okzhetpes prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 13:41

Ulytau 2–0 Okzhetpes OKZHETPES WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Okzhetpes win~~37%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.605

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.729

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 31 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Okzhetpes win at 37%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Ulytau 37% before kick-off, 36% now. 0–0 · 36–27–37
1′KICK-OFF Ulytau v Okzhetpes
8′Little has changed for our model: Ulytau 37% before kick-off, 36% now. 0–0 · 36–28–36
13′14′ and it is 0–0: Ulytau have scored. 0–0 · 35–29–36
13′⚽ GOAL · 14' Ulytau 0–0 Okzhetpes
18′14′ and it is 0–0: Ulytau have scored. 0–0 · 35–30–35
38′THE CALL SWINGS · 38' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Ulytau win 31%)
45′HALF-TIME Ulytau 0–0 Okzhetpes
45′SECOND HALF Ulytau 0–0 Okzhetpes
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Ulytau 1–0 Okzhetpes
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Ulytau 1–0 Okzhetpes
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Ulytau win 30%)
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Ulytau win 30%)
49′⚽ GOAL · 48' Ulytau 1–0 Okzhetpes
50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Ulytau win 30%)
51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Ulytau win 30%)
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Ulytau win 30%)
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Ulytau win 30%)
54′⚽ GOAL · 55' Ulytau 1–0 Okzhetpes
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Ulytau 2–0 Okzhetpes · A. Bougnone
60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Okzhetpes · On: S. Mukanov · Off: V. Sovpel
60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Okzhetpes · On: Z. Mukhametkhanov · Off: N. Buribaev
65′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Okzhetpes
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Okzhetpes · On: V. Vomenko · Off: V. Vasiljev
67′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Okzhetpes
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Okzhetpes · On: E. Nurgaliyev · Off: T. Zhangylyshbay
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Ulytau · On: A. Smith · Off: B. Zulfikarov
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Ulytau · On: I. Chernyak · Off: A. Akhmedov
81′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Okzhetpes
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Ulytau · On: M. Chalkin · Off: B. Vachiberadze
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Ulytau · On: R. Serikkul · Off: H. Harada
88′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Ulytau
92′🟨 YELLOW · 92' Ulytau
93′🟨 YELLOW · 94' Ulytau
FTFULL TIME Ulytau 2–0 Okzhetpes
FTUlytau 2–0 Okzhetpes · Okzhetpes win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Ulytau win37%

Draw26%

Okzhetpes win37%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 11:00

VenueStadion Metallurg

RefereeS. Karabaev

Line-ups

Ulytau

Okzhetpes

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Ulytau

Okzhetpes

23Days since last match23

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Okzhetpes	26	+6	45
9	Ulytau	26	−8	32

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Ulytau

Formation not confirmed

1 D. Nepogodov

2 D. Carmona Sierra

28 G. Bugulov

25 G. Bukhal

12 V. Afanasenko

90 D. Martin

18 A. Bougnone

8 B. Vachiberadze

14 H. Harada

13 A. Akhmedov

45 B. Zulfikarov

Coach · Nurken Mazbaev

Substitutes

4 · M. Chalkin

6 · K. Nursultanov

7 · K. Kishi

9 · R. Serikkul

11 · A. Smith

17 · B. Daniyarov

21 · O. Nurali

22 · I. Chernyak

40 · S. Shcherbakov

69 · D. Maulenov

77 · M. Shauymbay

78 · T. Zakirov

Okzhetpes

Formation not confirmed

22 M. Lobantsev

63 I. Kuzmichev

5 Leo Assunpcao

3 B. Lototskyi

77 V. Sovpel

8 N. Buribaev

9 D. Borodin

25 Marcinho

47 V. Vasiljev

11 T. Zhangylyshbay

17 S. Umarov

Coach · Rinat Alyuetov

Substitutes

2 · Z. Zhaksylykov

6 · Z. Mukhametkhanov

7 · V. Vomenko

10 · E. Nurgaliyev

12 · A. Dovgal

14 · S. Mukanov

16 · B. Shamshi

20 · M. Ensebaev

90 · U.

91 · B. Abdumannonov

Our number · okzhetpes winPublished 11 Oct 11:02

37% The market46%

Us37%

~~Market~~46%

We make Okzhetpes a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · okzhetpes win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 42% to 46% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ulytau win	37%	29%	+8
Draw	26%	25%	+1
Okzhetpes win	37%	46%	−9
Over 2.5 goals	48%	55%	−7
Both teams to score	52%	58%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	73%	77%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	26%	34%	−7
Ulytau or draw	63%	54%	+9
Ulytau clean sheet	28%	–	–
Okzhetpes clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 7.4 10.1 6.3 2.8 1 10.0 12.2 8.0 3.5 2 6.3 8.0 5.2 2.3 3 2.7 3.5 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ulytau down, Okzhetpes across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,095 Premier League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.3% of games this season, across 211 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 1.67 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ulytau at home: 0.83 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Okzhetpes away: 1.50 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.29 goals for Ulytau, 1.30 for Okzhetpes. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~1.67

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~OKZ 2–1 ULY · OKZ 1–0 ULY · ULY 0–1 OKZ

Form · last six in Premier League

ULYTAU

DLWLLD1–1 · 1–3 · 3–0 · 1–3 · 0–3 · 2–2

OKZHETPES

LWWWLW1–2 · 2–0 · 3–2 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 3–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ordabasy	26	+33	61
2	Kairat Almaty	27	+32	60
3	FC Astana	26	+16	48
4	Aktobe	27	+9	45
5	Okzhetpes	26	+6	45
6	Yelimay Semey	26	0	38
7	FK Tobol Kostanay	27	−1	37
8	Zhenys	27	−7	32
9	Ulytau	26	−8	32
10	Kaspiy	26	−9	29
11	Kyzyl-Zhar	27	−9	28
12	Atyrau	26	−9	26
13	Irtysh	26	−10	26
14	Kaisar	26	−11	24
15	Altay	26	−13	23
16	Zhetysu	27	−19	22