Ordabasy v Zhenys

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Ordabasy win at 65%.
2. 1′Much as we predicted: Ordabasy was 65% before kick-off and our model makes it 65% now. 0–0 · 65–20–14
3. 1′KICK-OFF Ordabasy v Zhenys
4. 14′🟨 YELLOW · 14' Ordabasy
5. 30′Ordabasy find the net on 29′. 0–0 · 57–29–15
6. 32′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Ordabasy
7. 33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Ordabasy win: 65% at kick-off, 55% now
8. 38′We said Ordabasy at 65%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 53%. 0–0 · 53–32–15
9. 45′HALF-TIME Ordabasy 0–0 Zhenys
10. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Ordabasy win: 65% at kick-off, 50% now
11. 45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Ordabasy win is now our likeliest result at 50% (was Draw 47%)
12. 45′SECOND HALF Ordabasy 0–0 Zhenys
13. 46′We said Ordabasy at 65%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 49–36–14
14. 46′We said Ordabasy at 65%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–30–51
15. 46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Ordabasy 0–1 Zhenys
16. 46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Ordabasy win: 65% at kick-off, 19% now
17. 46′THE CALL SWINGS · 46' Zhenys win is now our likeliest result at 51% (was Ordabasy win 49%)
18. 47′Zhenys score on 47′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 19–30–51
19. 51′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Ordabasy
20. 53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Ordabasy win: 65% at kick-off, 45% now
21. 54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Ordabasy win: 65% at kick-off, 15% now
22. 55′We said Ordabasy at 65%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–42–14 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
23. 55′We expected about 2.8 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 44–42–14 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
24. 56′We said Ordabasy at 65%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–29–57
25. 59′THE CALL SWINGS · 59' Draw is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Ordabasy win 43%)
26. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Ordabasy · On: T. Keita · Off: M. Capatina
27. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Ordabasy · On: E. Astanov · Off: N. Antic
28. 64′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Zhenys
29. 65′We said Ordabasy at 65%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–27–64
30. 67′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Zhenys
31. 67′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Ordabasy
32. 68′🟥 RED CARD · 68' Ordabasy
33. 69′A red card for Ordabasy on 69′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–1 · 7–25–68
34. 70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Ordabasy 1–1 Zhenys
35. 70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Ordabasy win: 65% at kick-off, 31% now
36. 70′THE CALL SWINGS · 70' Draw is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Zhenys win 69%)
37. 71′Ordabasy find the net on 70′. 1–1. 1–1 · 30–60–10
38. 71′We said Ordabasy at 65%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 30%. 1–1 · 30–60–10
39. 72′We said Ordabasy at 65%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–61–10
40. 72′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 1–1 · 29–61–10
41. 72′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Z. Amir · Ordabasy
42. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Ordabasy · On: Everton · Off: Leo Natel
43. 75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Ordabasy win: 65% at kick-off, 25% now
44. 76′We said Ordabasy at 65%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–67–9
45. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Zhenys · On: B. Madelkhan · Off: V. Naumets
46. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Ordabasy win: 65% at kick-off, 15% now
47. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Zhenys · On: Y. Besengaliyev · Off: Adilio
48. 91′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Zhenys · On: M. Khaseyn · Off: S. Zharynbetov
49. 91′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+1' Ordabasy win: 65% at kick-off, 5% now
50. 91′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Ordabasy · On: M. Toktybay · Off: G. Kilama
51. 92′We said Ordabasy at 65%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–94–2
52. 94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' Zhenys
53. FTFULL TIME Ordabasy 1–1 Zhenys
54. FTOrdabasy 1–1 Zhenys · Ordabasy win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.