Okzhetpes v Kyzyl-Zhar prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 13:56

Okzhetpes 1–0 Kyzyl-Zhar OKZHETPES WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Okzhetpes win~~46%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.437

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.491

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Okzhetpes win at 46%.
1′Much as we predicted: Okzhetpes was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 46–25–29
1′KICK-OFF Okzhetpes v Kyzyl-Zhar
2′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 2' Okzhetpes win: 46% at kick-off, 46% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Okzhetpes win: 46% at kick-off, 36% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Okzhetpes win: 46% at kick-off, 36% now
45′HALF-TIME Okzhetpes 0–0 Kyzyl-Zhar
45′SECOND HALF Okzhetpes 0–0 Kyzyl-Zhar
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Okzhetpes win 35%)
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Okzhetpes · On: S. Umarov · Off: T. Zhangylyshbay Corrected
50′We said Okzhetpes at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–42–24
55′We expected about 2.6 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 36–39–25
60′We published Okzhetpes at 46%. Our model now makes it 79%. 1–0 · 79–17–4
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Okzhetpes 1–0 Kyzyl-Zhar
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Okzhetpes win: 46% at kick-off, 79% now
60′THE CALL SWINGS · 60' Okzhetpes win is now our likeliest result at 79% (was Draw 17%)
61′Okzhetpes find the net on 61′. 1–0. 1–0 · 80–17–3
61′We published Okzhetpes at 46%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Okzhetpes · On: V. Sovpel · Off: S. Mukanov Corrected
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Okzhetpes · On: N. Buribaev · Off: Z. Mukhametkhanov Corrected
65′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Kyzyl-Zhar · On: E. Beugre · Off: A. Abiken Corrected
73′We published Okzhetpes at 46%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
73′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Kyzyl-Zhar
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Okzhetpes win: 46% at kick-off, 86% now
77′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Okzhetpes
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Kyzyl-Zhar · On: T. Zhienaliev · Off: S. Bahoken Corrected
78′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Kyzyl-Zhar · On: A. Cheredinov · Off: N. Gubarev Corrected
78′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Okzhetpes · On: E. Nurgaliyev · Off: B. Abdumannonov Corrected
80′We published Okzhetpes at 46%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
80′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Okzhetpes
87′We published Okzhetpes at 46%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
87′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Kyzyl-Zhar
88′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Kyzyl-Zhar · On: Y. Pertsukh · Off: E. Makarenko Corrected
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Okzhetpes win: 46% at kick-off, 96% now
90′Full time, 1–0. We called Okzhetpes at 46% — that one lands. 1–0 · 100–0–0
93′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' Okzhetpes · On: U. · Off: D. Borodin Corrected
FTFULL TIME Okzhetpes 1–0 Kyzyl-Zhar
FTOkzhetpes 1–0 Kyzyl-Zhar · Okzhetpes win: right · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Okzhetpes are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Okzhetpes 46%, draw 25%, Kyzyl-Zhar 29%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Okzhetpes v Kyzyl-ZharBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Okzhetpes win46%

Draw25%

Kyzyl-Zhar win29%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 23

VenueOkzhetpes Stadium

RefereeG. Moskovchenko

Line-ups

Okzhetpes

3-4-3

Kyzyl-Zhar

5-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Okzhetpes

Kyzyl-Zhar

6Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · the Kazakh Premier League

Last match: 10 Oct · the Kazakh Premier League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Okzhetpes	27	+4	45
11	Kyzyl-Zhar	27	−9	28

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Okzhetpes

3-4-3

22 M. Lobantsev

63 I. Kuzmichev

5 Leo Assunpcao

3 B. Lototskyi

14 S. Mukanov

9 D. Borodin

25 Marcinho

47 V. Vasiljev

6 Z. Mukhametkhanov

11 T. Zhangylyshbay

91 B. Abdumannonov

Coach · Rinat Alyuetov

Substitutes

2 · Z. Zhaksylykov

4 · V. Zyabko

7 · V. Vomenko

8 · N. Buribaev

10 · E. Nurgaliyev

12 · A. Dovgal

16 · B. Shamshi

17 · S. Umarov

20 · M. Ensebaev

67 · R. Atykhanov

77 · V. Sovpel

90 · U.

Kyzyl-Zhar

5-4-1

1 D. Celeadnic

71 A. Sokolenko

55 O. Noyok

23 N. Piscevic

28 S. Urosevic

27 N. Gubarev

10 J. Bjartalid

8 E. Makarenko

96 A. Abiken

77 L. Latifi

13 S. Bahoken

Coach · Milic Curcic

Substitutes

7 · T. Muldinov

11 · A. Cheredinov

17 · M. Eleukin

19 · D. Serikuly

29 · G. Loginovsky

32 · V. Petrov

47 · T. Zhienaliev

53 · D. Talyspayev

78 · S. Zhetpisbay

79 · G. Valgushev

88 · Y. Pertsukh

99 · E. Beugre

Our number · okzhetpes winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 00:10 · locked at kick-off

46% The market43%

Us46%

~~Market~~43%

We make Okzhetpes a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Okzhetpes v Kyzyl-Zhar~~1.51 – 1.14

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 16 Aug~~W4 D0 L2 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 45 v 28~~5 v 11

~~The market · Okzhetpes win~~43% · ours 46%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Okzhetpes win The market, margin stripped

Published at 47%, 46% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Okzhetpes win	46%	43%	+3
Draw	25%	28%	−3
Kyzyl-Zhar win	29%	29%	0
Over 2.5 goals	49%	49%	0
Both teams to score	52%	54%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	74%	72%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	27%	29%	−2
Okzhetpes or draw	71%	71%	0
Okzhetpes clean sheet	32%	–	–
Kyzyl-Zhar clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 7.0 8.4 4.6 1 11.0 11.8 6.8 2.6 2 8.1 9.0 5.1 3 4.1 4.6 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Okzhetpes down, Kyzyl-Zhar across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,100 Premier League matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.6% of games this season, across 216 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.80 goals a meeting; 3 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Okzhetpes at home: 2.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Kyzyl-Zhar away: 1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.51 goals for Okzhetpes, 1.14 for Kyzyl-Zhar. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 17 Oct 10:32. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 5

~~Both scored~~3 of 5

~~Last meetings~~KYZ 0–1 OKZ · KYZ 3–1 OKZ · OKZ 3–2 KYZ · KYZ 1–2 OKZ

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 16 Aug

OKZHETPES

WWWLWL2–0 · 3–2 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 3–1 · 0–2

KYZYL-ZHAR

DLLLDW1–1 · 0–3 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 2–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ordabasy	26	+33	61
2	Kairat Almaty	26	+33	60
3	FC Astana	26	+16	48
4	Aktobe	27	+9	45
5	Okzhetpes	27	+4	45
6	Yelimay Semey	27	+1	41
7	FK Tobol Kostanay	27	−1	37
8	Ulytau	27	−6	35
9	Zhenys	27	−7	32
10	Kaspiy	27	−8	32
11	Kyzyl-Zhar	27	−9	28
12	Atyrau	26	−7	26
13	Irtysh	27	−11	26
14	Kaisar	27	−14	24
15	Altay	27	−14	23
16	Zhetysu	27	−19	22