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Okzhetpes v Kaspiy

Okzhetpes

3–0Full time

Kaspiy

Premier League · SAT 24 OCT · Okzhetpes Stadium

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 14:04

Okzhetpes 3–0 Kaspiy OKZHETPES WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Okzhetpes win~~50%

~~The market said~~62%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.373

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.216

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Okzhetpes win at 50%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Okzhetpes 50% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 50–24–26
1′KICK-OFF Okzhetpes v Kaspiy
9′A goal for Okzhetpes on 8′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 74–16–10
9′We said Okzhetpes at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 74%. 1–0 · 74–16–10
9′⚽ GOAL · 8' Okzhetpes 1–0 Kaspiy
9′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 9' Okzhetpes win: 50% at kick-off, 74% now
10′I. Kuzmichev scores for Okzhetpes on 9′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 74–16–10
26′We said Okzhetpes at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–17–8
31′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 1–0 · 75–17–8
32′SUBSTITUTION · 27' Okzhetpes · On: Z. Mukhametkhanov · Off: S. Umarov
34′🟨 YELLOW · 34' Okzhetpes
45′HALF-TIME Okzhetpes 1–0 Kaspiy
46′SECOND HALF Okzhetpes 1–0 Kaspiy
54′Okzhetpes score on 54′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Okzhetpes 2–0 Kaspiy
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Okzhetpes win: 50% at kick-off, 95% now
55′We said Okzhetpes at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 2–0 · 96–4–1
60′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Kaspiy
66′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Okzhetpes · On: E. Nurgaliyev · Off: N. Buribaev
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Okzhetpes · On: B. Abdumannonov · Off: T. Zhangylyshbay
77′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Kaspiy · On: D. Epton · Off: A. Nabikhanov
77′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Kaspiy · On: K. Sylla · Off: A. Armenov
79′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Okzhetpes · On: U. · Off: D. Borodin
79′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Okzhetpes · On: M. Ensebaev · Off: V. Sovpel
82′We said Okzhetpes at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
82′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Kaspiy · On: E. Kadyrbaev · Off: A. Amaral
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Okzhetpes win: 50% at kick-off, over 99% now
82′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Kaspiy
83′Okzhetpes find the net on 83′. 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
83′3 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 100–0–0
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Okzhetpes 3–0 Kaspiy
84′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Kaspiy · On: E. Kadyrbaev · Off: A. Amaral
87′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Kaspiy
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Kaspiy
FTFULL TIME Okzhetpes 3–0 Kaspiy
FTOkzhetpes 3–0 Kaspiy · Okzhetpes win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Okzhetpes are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Okzhetpes 50%, draw 23%, Kaspiy 26%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Okzhetpes v KaspiyBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Okzhetpes win50%

Draw23%

Kaspiy win26%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 29

VenueOkzhetpes Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Okzhetpes

Kaspiy

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · the Kazakh Premier League

Last match: 18 Oct · the Kazakh Premier League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Okzhetpes	28	+5	48
9	Kaspiy	28	−8	33

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · okzhetpes winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:15 · locked at kick-off

50% The market62%

Us50%

~~Market~~62%

We make Okzhetpes a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 62%. We are 12 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Okzhetpes v Kaspiy~~1.70 – 1.16

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 29 Aug~~W4 D0 L2 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 48 v 33~~4 v 9

~~The market · Okzhetpes win~~62% · ours 50%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Okzhetpes win The market, margin stripped

Published at 51%, 50% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 62% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Okzhetpes win	50%	62%	−12
Draw	23%	22%	+1
Kaspiy win	26%	16%	+10
Over 2.5 goals	54%	56%	−2
Both teams to score	56%	52%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	77%	77%	0
Over 3.5 goals	32%	35%	−3
Okzhetpes or draw	74%	84%	−10
Okzhetpes clean sheet	32%	–	–
Kaspiy clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.9%

0123450 5.6 6.9 3.9 1 10.0 10.9 6.5 2.5 2 8.2 9.4 5.5 2.1 3 4.7 5.4 3.1 4 2.0 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Okzhetpes down, Kaspiy across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,108 Premier League matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.6% of games this season, across 224 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Okzhetpes at home: 2.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Kaspiy away: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.70 goals for Okzhetpes, 1.16 for Kaspiy. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 5

~~Both scored~~3 of 5

~~Last meetings~~KAS 1–3 OKZ · KAS 0–1 OKZ · OKZ 1–0 KAS · OKZ 3–3 KAS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 29 Aug

OKZHETPES

WWLWLW3–2 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 3–1 · 0–2 · 1–0

KASPIY

WLLWWD1–0 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 2–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ordabasy	28	+38	67
2	Kairat Almaty	28	+37	63
3	FC Astana	28	+17	52
4	Okzhetpes	28	+5	48
5	Aktobe	28	+7	45
6	Yelimay Semey	28	+2	44
7	FK Tobol Kostanay	28	+1	40
8	Ulytau	28	−7	35
9	Kaspiy	28	−8	33
10	Zhenys	28	−9	32
11	Atyrau	28	−10	27
12	Kyzyl-Zhar	28	−13	27
13	Altay	28	−11	26
14	Irtysh	28	−16	26
15	Zhetysu	28	−18	25
16	Kaisar	28	−15	24