Kyzyl-Zhar v Ulytau prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 14:53

Kyzyl-Zhar 1–0 Ulytau KYZYL-ZHAR WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Kyzyl-Zhar win~~48%

~~The market said~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.411

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.267

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Kyzyl-Zhar win at 48%.
1′Much as we predicted: Kyzyl-Zhar was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 48–28–25
1′KICK-OFF Kyzyl-Zhar v Ulytau
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Kyzyl-Zhar win: 48% at kick-off, 38% now
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Kyzyl-Zhar win 39%)
42′Kyzyl-Zhar find the net on 41′. 0–0 · 37–42–21
42′We published Kyzyl-Zhar at 48%. Our model now makes it 79%. 1–0 · 79–17–4
42′⚽ GOAL · 41' Kyzyl-Zhar 1–0 Ulytau
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Kyzyl-Zhar win: 48% at kick-off, 79% now
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Kyzyl-Zhar win is now our likeliest result at 79% (was Draw 42%)
43′Goals are coming at about the 2.2 we expected. 1–0 · 79–17–4
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Kyzyl-Zhar win: 48% at kick-off, 79% now
45′HALF-TIME Kyzyl-Zhar 1–0 Ulytau
45′SECOND HALF Kyzyl-Zhar 1–0 Ulytau
46′We published Kyzyl-Zhar at 48%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–4
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Ulytau · On: I. Chernyak · Off: D. Martin
60′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Kyzyl-Zhar · On: E. Beugre · Off: T. Muldinov
65′We published Kyzyl-Zhar at 48%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
65′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Ulytau · On: A. Bougnone · Off: K. Nursultanov
65′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Ulytau · On: D. Maulenov · Off: A. Akhmedov
72′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Ulytau · On: A. Smith · Off: B. Zulfikarov
72′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Kyzyl-Zhar
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' Kyzyl-Zhar win: 48% at kick-off, 88% now
76′We published Kyzyl-Zhar at 48%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
78′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Ulytau · On: A. Taubay · Off: I. Chernyak
84′We published Kyzyl-Zhar at 48%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
88′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Kyzyl-Zhar · On: Y. Pertsukh · Off: A. Abiken
90′Full time, 1–0. We called Kyzyl-Zhar at 48% — that one lands. 1–0 · 100–0–0
90′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Kyzyl-Zhar
91′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Kyzyl-Zhar · On: T. Zhienaliev · Off: S. Bahoken
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+1' Kyzyl-Zhar win: 48% at kick-off, 98% now
91′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Ulytau
92′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Kyzyl-Zhar
FTFULL TIME Kyzyl-Zhar 1–0 Ulytau
FTKyzyl-Zhar 1–0 Ulytau · Kyzyl-Zhar win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Kyzyl-Zhar are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kyzyl-Zhar 48%, draw 28%, Ulytau 25%. Over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Kyzyl-Zhar v UlytauBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Kyzyl-Zhar win48%

Draw28%

Ulytau win25%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 29

VenueKarasai Stadium

Line-ups

Kyzyl-Zhar

4-3-3

Ulytau

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kyzyl-Zhar

Ulytau

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · the Kazakh Premier League

Last match: 18 Oct · the Kazakh Premier League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Ulytau	28	−7	35
12	Kyzyl-Zhar	28	−13	27

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Kyzyl-Zhar

4-3-3

1 Dumitru Celeadnic

11 Artem Cheredinov

55 Oleksandr Noyok

23 Nedeljko Piščević

27 Nikita Gubarev

96 Aibol Abiken

10 Jóannes Bjartalíð

8 Yevhen Makarenko

7 Timur Muldinov

13 Stéphane Bahoken

77 Liridon Latifi

Coach · –

Substitutes

39 · Sanzhar Erniyazov

32 · Vadim Petrov

53 · Dulat Talyspayev

17 · Miras Eleukin

26 · Olzhas Kerimzhanov

90 · Abylaikhan Kenzhadoyev

88 · Yuriy Pertsukh

19 · Dimash Serikuly

79 · Gleb Valgushev

99 · Etienne Beugre

75 · Gleb Loginovskiy

47 · Temirlan Zhienaliev

Ulytau

4-4-2

1 Dmytro Nepohodov

2 David Carmona

28 Georgiy Bugulov

25 Glib Bukhal

12 Vadim Afanasenko

20 Aslan Akhmedov

8 Beka Vachiberadze

6 Kuandyk Nursultanov

14 Hiroki Harada

90 David Martin Anane

45 Bakdaulet Zulfikarov

Coach · –

Substitutes

40 · Stanislav Shcherbakov

78 · Timurbek Zakirov

4 · Maksim Chalkin

69 · Daniel Maulenov

18 · Arthur Bougnone

17 · Bagdat Daniyarov

22 · Ilya Chernyak

9 · Rinat Serikkul

10 · Abzal Taubay

7 · Kotaro Kishi

21 · Orken Nurali

11 · Ariagner Smith

Our number · kyzyl-zhar winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

48% The market58%

Us48%

~~Market~~58%

We make Kyzyl-Zhar a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kyzyl-Zhar v Ulytau~~1.32 – 0.85

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 29 Aug~~W1 D1 L4 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 27 v 35~~12 v 8

~~The market · Kyzyl-Zhar win~~58% · ours 48%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Kyzyl-Zhar win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 58% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kyzyl-Zhar win	48%	58%	−10
Draw	28%	25%	+3
Ulytau win	25%	17%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	37%	47%	−10
Both teams to score	42%	46%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	63%	71%	−8
Over 3.5 goals	18%	27%	−9
Kyzyl-Zhar or draw	75%	83%	−8
Kyzyl-Zhar clean sheet	43%	–	–
Ulytau clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.3%

0123450 11.3 10.0 4.2 1 15.3 12.4 5.4 2 9.9 8.3 3.6 3 4.4 3.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kyzyl-Zhar down, Ulytau across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,108 Premier League matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.6% of games this season, across 224 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2024 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kyzyl-Zhar at home: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Ulytau away: 1.17 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.32 goals for Kyzyl-Zhar, 0.85 for Ulytau. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~ULY 1–0 KYZ · ULY 1–1 KYZ · KYZ 2–1 ULY

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 29 Aug

KYZYL-ZHAR

LLLDWL0–3 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 0–1

ULYTAU

WLLDWL3–0 · 1–3 · 0–3 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ordabasy	28	+38	67
2	Kairat Almaty	28	+37	63
3	FC Astana	28	+17	52
4	Okzhetpes	28	+5	48
5	Aktobe	28	+7	45
6	Yelimay Semey	28	+2	44
7	FK Tobol Kostanay	28	+1	40
8	Ulytau	28	−7	35
9	Kaspiy	28	−8	33
10	Zhenys	28	−9	32
11	Atyrau	28	−10	27
12	Kyzyl-Zhar	28	−13	27
13	Altay	28	−11	26
14	Irtysh	28	−16	26
15	Zhetysu	28	−18	25
16	Kaisar	28	−15	24