Kaspiy v Kyzyl-Zhar prediction · Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

KaspiyDrawKyzyl-Zhar

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 10:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Kaspiy 40%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Kaspiy are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kaspiy 40%, draw 27%, Kyzyl-Zhar 32%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Kaspiy v Kyzyl-ZharBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Kaspiy win40%

Draw27%

Kyzyl-Zhar win32%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 10:00

RoundMatchday 30

VenueZhestar Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kaspiy

Kyzyl-Zhar

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · the Kazakh Premier League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Kaspiy	29	−11	33
11	Kyzyl-Zhar	29	−12	30

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kaspiy winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Kaspiy a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kaspiy v Kyzyl-Zhar~~1.26 – 1.08

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 33 v 30~~10 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kaspiy win	40%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Kyzyl-Zhar win	32%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	41%	–	–
Both teams to score	47%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	67%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	21%	–	–
Kaspiy or draw	68%	–	–
Kaspiy clean sheet	34%	–	–
Kyzyl-Zhar clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 9.6 10.7 5.7 2.1 1 12.3 12.7 7.0 2.6 2 7.6 8.1 4.4 3 3.2 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kaspiy down, Kyzyl-Zhar across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,112 Premier League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.1% of games this season, across 228 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.78 goals a meeting; 5 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kaspiy at home: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Kyzyl-Zhar away: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.26 goals for Kaspiy, 1.08 for Kyzyl-Zhar. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.78

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 9

~~Both scored~~7 of 9

~~Last meetings~~KYZ 2–1 KAS · KAS 1–2 KYZ · KYZ 1–1 KAS · KYZ 4–1 KAS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 5 Sept

KASPIY

LLWWDL0–3 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 0–3

KYZYL-ZHAR

LLDWLW0–1 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ordabasy	29	+38	68
2	Kairat Almaty	28	+37	63
3	FC Astana	28	+17	52
4	Okzhetpes	29	+8	51
5	Aktobe	28	+7	45
6	Yelimay Semey	28	+2	44
7	FK Tobol Kostanay	29	+1	41
8	Ulytau	29	−8	35
9	Zhenys	29	−9	33
10	Kaspiy	29	−11	33
11	Kyzyl-Zhar	29	−12	30
12	Atyrau	28	−10	27
13	Altay	28	−11	26
14	Irtysh	28	−16	26
15	Zhetysu	29	−18	26
16	Kaisar	28	−15	24