Kaspiy v Altay prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 14:34

Kaspiy 2–1 Altay KASPIY WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Kaspiy win~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.431

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 35 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Kaspiy win at 46%.
1′KICK-OFF Kaspiy v Altay
3′Little has changed for our model: Kaspiy 46% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–27–27
20′🟨 YELLOW · 20' Kaspiy
23′🟨 YELLOW · 22' Altay
27′⚽ GOAL · 27' Kaspiy 0–1 Altay
39′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Kaspiy
40′Altay ahead on 27′ through A. Nazymkhanov. 0–1. 0–1 · 12–25–62
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Kaspiy win: 46% at kick-off, 12% now
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Altay win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Kaspiy win 12%)
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Kaspiy win: 46% at kick-off, 43% now
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Kaspiy win is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Altay win 26%)
41′Altay ahead on 27′ through A. Nazymkhanov. 0–1. 0–1 · 12–25–63
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Kaspiy win: 46% at kick-off, 12% now
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Altay win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Kaspiy win 12%)
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Kaspiy win: 46% at kick-off, 43% now
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Kaspiy win is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Altay win 26%)
45′HALF-TIME Kaspiy 0–1 Altay
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Kaspiy win: 46% at kick-off, 12% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Altay win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Kaspiy win 12%)
46′SECOND HALF Kaspiy 0–1 Altay
55′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Altay
56′🟨 YELLOW · 54' D. Stoisavljevic · Altay
57′🟨 YELLOW · 54' D. Stoisavljevic · Altay
59′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Altay
64′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Kaspiy · On: K. Sylla · Off: R. Abylaykhan
66′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Altay · On: Z. Kukeev · Off: N. Micevic
67′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Altay · On: E. Lobzhanidze · Off: D. Stoisavljevic
67′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Altay · On: S. Popov · Off: D. Dodev
72′🟥 RED CARD · 72' Altay
73′🟥 RED CARD · 72' A. Nazymkhanov · Altay
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Kaspiy 1–1 Altay
79′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Kaspiy · On: B. Kabylan · Off: D. Epton
79′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Altay · On: O. Saylybaev · Off: I. Dadaev
79′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Kaspiy · On: I. Umaev · Off: N. Ndombasi
90′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Altay · On: S. Khizhnichenko · Off: E. Gorshunov
90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Kaspiy · On: D. Nechayev · Off: D. Aripov
90′⚽ GOAL · 92' Kaspiy 2–1 Altay
FTFULL TIME Kaspiy 2–1 Altay
FTKaspiy 2–1 Altay · Kaspiy win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Kaspiy win46%

Draw26%

Altay win28%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 12:00

VenueZhestar Stadium

RefereeR. Omarov

Line-ups

Kaspiy

Altay

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Kaspiy

Altay

23Days since last match23

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Kaspiy	26	−9	29
15	Altay	26	−13	23

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Kaspiy

Formation not confirmed

24 D. Zhomart

21 D. Aripov

14 A. Amaral

30 B. Morgado

19 M. Taykenov

23 A. Nabikhanov

15 D. Epton

26 P. Sedko

17 V. Klimovich

11 N. Ndombasi

9 R. Abylaykhan

Coach · Ruslan Esatov

Substitutes

1 · N. Ayazbaev

4 · E. Kadyrbaev

7 · B. Kabylan

8 · A. Armenov

10 · I. Umaev

13 · M. Serikbay

16 · A. Baydavletov

20 · N. Abdulla

27 · D. Nechayev

49 · Y. Andrin

67 · M. Kalmyrza

93 · K. Sylla

Altay

Formation not confirmed

25 D. Kucher

4 N. Micevic

23 D. Kenzhegulov

88 S. Ivanov

15 D. Schmidt

11 I. Dadaev

18 A. Nazymkhanov

98 D. Podstrelov

9 E. Gorshunov

99 D. Stoisavljevic

45 D. Dodev

Coach · Vakhid Masudov

Substitutes

5 · O. Saylybaev

19 · Z. Gultyaev

22 · A. Dzhanuzakov

29 · E. Lobzhanidze

35 · A. Aliakbar

70 · D. Mitrofanov

77 · S. Popov

91 · S. Khizhnichenko

1 · A. Sapargaliev

17 · Z. Kukeev

Our number · kaspiy winPublished 11 Oct 12:12

46% The market–

Us46%

We make Kaspiy a 46% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kaspiy win	46%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Altay win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	46%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	71%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	25%	–	–
Kaspiy or draw	72%	–	–
Kaspiy clean sheet	35%	–	–
Altay clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%

0123450 8.1 8.9 4.6 1 12.0 12.1 6.5 2.3 2 8.5 8.9 4.7 3 4.2 4.3 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kaspiy down, Altay across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,095 Premier League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.3% of games this season, across 211 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 0.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kaspiy at home: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Altay away: 1.17 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.46 goals for Kaspiy, 1.06 for Altay. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~0.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~ALT 0–0 KAS

Form · last six in Premier League

KASPIY

DDWLLW1–1 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 1–0

ALTAY

DLLWWL2–2 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ordabasy	26	+33	61
2	Kairat Almaty	27	+32	60
3	FC Astana	26	+16	48
4	Aktobe	27	+9	45
5	Okzhetpes	26	+6	45
6	Yelimay Semey	26	0	38
7	FK Tobol Kostanay	27	−1	37
8	Zhenys	27	−7	32
9	Ulytau	26	−8	32
10	Kaspiy	26	−9	29
11	Kyzyl-Zhar	27	−9	28
12	Atyrau	26	−9	26
13	Irtysh	26	−10	26
14	Kaisar	26	−11	24
15	Altay	26	−13	23
16	Zhetysu	27	−19	22