Kaisar v Ordabasy prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Kaisar 1–4 Ordabasy ORDABASY WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ordabasy win~~51%

~~The market said~~61%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.364

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.232

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 47 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ordabasy win at 51%.
2′Much as we predicted: Ordabasy was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 23–26–50
5′Much as we predicted: Ordabasy was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 23–27–50
19′15′ and it is 0–1: B. Johnsen on the scoresheet for Ordabasy. 0–1 · 7–16–77
22′15′ and it is 0–1: B. Johnsen on the scoresheet for Ordabasy. 0–1 · 6–16–77
31′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Ordabasy
32′⚽ GOAL · 33' Kaisar 0–1 Ordabasy
33′⚽ GOAL · 33' Kaisar 0–2 Ordabasy · B. Johnsen
37′Ordabasy ahead on 33′ through B. Johnsen. 0–2. 0–2 · 1–4–95
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Ordabasy win: 51% at kick-off, 95% now
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Ordabasy win: 51% at kick-off, 77% now
38′Ordabasy ahead on 33′ through B. Johnsen. 0–2. 0–2 · 1–4–95
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Ordabasy win: 51% at kick-off, 95% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Ordabasy win: 51% at kick-off, 77% now
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Kaisar 1–2 Ordabasy · B. Johnsen
44′⚽ GOAL · 45' Kaisar 1–2 Ordabasy
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Ordabasy win: 51% at kick-off, 95% now
45′⚽ GOAL · 15' Kaisar 1–2 Ordabasy · B. Johnsen
45′🟨 YELLOW · 25' U. Zhaksybaev · Ordabasy
45′🟨 YELLOW · 32' N. Antic · Ordabasy
45′⚽ GOAL · 33' Kaisar 1–2 Ordabasy · B. Johnsen (assist Leo Natel)
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Kaisar 1–2 Ordabasy · Klaidher
45′SECOND HALF Kaisar 1–2 Ordabasy
45′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Kaisar · On: R. Bagdat · Off: B. Konlimkos
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Ordabasy win: 51% at kick-off, 95% now
47′SECOND HALF Kaisar 1–2 Ordabasy
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Ordabasy win: 51% at kick-off, 95% now
48′SECOND HALF Kaisar 1–2 Ordabasy
49′SECOND HALF Kaisar 1–2 Ordabasy
50′SECOND HALF Kaisar 1–2 Ordabasy
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Ordabasy win: 51% at kick-off, 95% now
51′SECOND HALF Kaisar 1–2 Ordabasy
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Ordabasy win: 51% at kick-off, 95% now
52′SECOND HALF Kaisar 1–2 Ordabasy
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Ordabasy win: 51% at kick-off, 95% now
52′⚽ GOAL · 53' Kaisar 1–2 Ordabasy
53′SECOND HALF Kaisar 1–2 Ordabasy
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Ordabasy win: 51% at kick-off, 95% now
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Kaisar 1–3 Ordabasy · Klaidher
54′SECOND HALF Kaisar 1–2 Ordabasy
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Ordabasy win: 51% at kick-off, 95% now
55′SECOND HALF Kaisar 1–2 Ordabasy
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Ordabasy win: 51% at kick-off, 95% now
59′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Kaisar
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Ordabasy · On: E. Astanov · Off: Everton
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Ordabasy · On: M. Capatina · Off: T. Keita
63′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Ordabasy · On: M. Capatina · Off: T. Keita
71′⚽ GOAL · 72' Kaisar 1–3 Ordabasy
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Kaisar 1–4 Ordabasy · D. Abagna
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Kaisar · On: Gustavo Zago · Off: N. Zhaksylyk
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Kaisar · On: A. Mukhammed · Off: V. Moses
80′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Ordabasy · On: M. Toktybay · Off: B. Johnsen
80′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Ordabasy · On: A. Nurymbet · Off: U. Zhaksybaev
FTFULL TIME Kaisar 1–4 Ordabasy
FTKaisar 1–4 Ordabasy · Ordabasy win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Kaisar win24%

Draw26%

Ordabasy win51%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 15:00

VenueKaysar Arena

RefereeB. Sariev

Line-ups

Kaisar

Ordabasy

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Kaisar

Ordabasy

23Days since last match24

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ordabasy	26	+33	61
14	Kaisar	26	−11	24

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Kaisar

Formation not confirmed

40 A. Kovac

5 A. Kenesbek

93 S. Askarov

43 Klaidher

7 B. Tazhibay

42 Miqueias

24 N. Cuckic

12 S. Sovet

13 N. Zhaksylyk

11 V. Moses

47 B. Konlimkos

Coach · Dmitriy Karpov

Substitutes

1 · N. Salaydin

2 · T. Redzhepov

3 · A. Tolegenov

6 · E. Kaldybekov

9 · N. Agzambaev

10 · Agostinho

14 · Gustavo Zago

15 · N. Idrisov

17 · S. Zhumabekov

29 · R. Bagdat

70 · I. Ezekiel

96 · A. Mukhammed

Ordabasy

Formation not confirmed

1 B. Shayzada

5 N. Antic

8 U. Zhaksybaev

25 S. Maliy

22 S. Astanov

19 Leo Natel

55 A. Amanovic

44 T. Keita

77 D. Abagna

28 B. Johnsen

9 Everton

Coach · Andrei Martin

Substitutes

3 · G. Kilama

4 · S. Keiler

10 · E. Astanov

11 · Y. Vakulko

13 · K. Tolepbergen

14 · A. Turganov

15 · Z. Amir

16 · M. Capatina

20 · M. Toktybay

21 · B. Toktybay

23 · A. Nurymbet

27 · N. Serik

Our number · ordabasy winPublished 11 Oct 15:13

51% The market61%

Us51%

~~Market~~61%

We make Ordabasy a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 61%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · ordabasy win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 65% to 61% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kaisar win	24%	17%	+7
Draw	26%	22%	+3
Ordabasy win	51%	61%	−10
Over 2.5 goals	44%	53%	−10
Both teams to score	46%	50%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	69%	75%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	23%	33%	−10
Kaisar or draw	49%	39%	+10
Kaisar clean sheet	23%	–	–
Ordabasy clean sheet	40%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 13.5%

0123450 8.7 13.5 9.9 5.0 1 8.5 11.9 9.1 4.6 2 3.8 5.6 4.2 2.1 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kaisar down, Ordabasy across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,095 Premier League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.3% of games this season, across 211 played.

Head to head

9 previous meetings, 3.44 goals a meeting; 6 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kaisar at home: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Ordabasy away: 2.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.93 goals for Kaisar, 1.50 for Ordabasy. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.44

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 9

~~Both scored~~5 of 9

~~Last meetings~~ORD 2–0 KAI · KAI 1–1 ORD · ORD 5–0 KAI · KAI 2–1 ORD

Form · last six in Premier League

KAISAR

LLLLWD1–2 · 2–3 · 2–3 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 1–1

ORDABASY

WWWLWW4–0 · 3–1 · 3–0 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 3–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ordabasy	26	+33	61
2	Kairat Almaty	27	+32	60
3	FC Astana	26	+16	48
4	Aktobe	27	+9	45
5	Okzhetpes	26	+6	45
6	Yelimay Semey	26	0	38
7	FK Tobol Kostanay	27	−1	37
8	Zhenys	27	−7	32
9	Ulytau	26	−8	32
10	Kaspiy	26	−9	29
11	Kyzyl-Zhar	27	−9	28
12	Atyrau	26	−9	26
13	Irtysh	26	−10	26
14	Kaisar	26	−11	24
15	Altay	26	−13	23
16	Zhetysu	27	−19	22