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Kairat Almaty v Zhetysu

Kairat Almaty

1–0Full time

Zhetysu

Premier League · SAT 10 OCT · Almaty Central Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:38

Kairat Almaty 1–0 Zhetysu KAIRAT ALMATY WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Kairat Almaty win~~78%

~~The market said~~74%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.077

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.100

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Kairat Almaty win at 78%.
0′Little has changed for our model: Kairat Almaty 78% before kick-off, 78% now. 0–0 · 78–15–7
0′KICK-OFF Kairat Almaty v Zhetysu
31′🟨 YELLOW · 31' Zhetysu
41′We said Kairat Almaty at 78%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 63%. 0–0 · 63–28–9
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Kairat Almaty win: 78% at kick-off, 63% now
45′HALF-TIME Kairat Almaty 0–0 Zhetysu
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Kairat Almaty · On: A. Tuyakbaev · Off: L. Kurgin
49′SECOND HALF Kairat Almaty 0–0 Zhetysu
65′We said Kairat Almaty at 78%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–47–9
65′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Kairat Almaty · On: M. Abish · Off: G. Mendonsa
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Zhetysu · On: S. Abzalov · Off: N. Nurbol
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Kairat Almaty win: 78% at kick-off, 44% now
76′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Kairat Almaty
78′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Zhetysu
79′🟨 YELLOW · 77' D. Kashken · Zhetysu
84′🟨 YELLOW · 31' A. Baltabekov · Zhetysu
84′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Kairat Almaty · On: A. Tuyakbaev · Off: L. Kurgin
84′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Kairat Almaty · On: M. Abish · Off: G. Mendonsa
84′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Zhetysu · On: S. Abzalov · Off: N. Nurbol
84′🟨 YELLOW · 76' O. Jukkola · Kairat Almaty
84′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Kairat Almaty · On: I. Bekbolat · Off: O. Jukkola
84′🟨 YELLOW · 77' D. Kashken · Zhetysu
86′M. Gual scores for Kairat Almaty on 87′ — 0–0. 0–0 · 10–87–3
86′⚽ GOAL · 87' Kairat Almaty 0–0 Zhetysu
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Kairat Almaty win: 78% at kick-off, 10% now
86′THE CALL SWINGS · 86' Draw is now our likeliest result at 87% (was Kairat Almaty win 10%)
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Kairat Almaty 1–0 Zhetysu · M. Gual
89′🟥 RED CARD · 90' Zhetysu
90′🟥 RED CARD · 90' Zhetysu
91′🟥 RED CARD · 90' D. Kashken · Zhetysu
93′⚽ GOAL · 94' Kairat Almaty 1–0 Zhetysu
FTFULL TIME Kairat Almaty 1–0 Zhetysu
FTKairat Almaty 1–0 Zhetysu · Kairat Almaty win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Kairat Almaty win78%

Draw15%

Zhetysu win8%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:00

Venue · Almaty Central Stadium

Referee · D. Gorda

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Kairat Almaty

Formation not confirmed

1 T. Anarbekov

20 E. Tapalov

14 A. Martynovich

25 A. Shirobokov

5 L. Kurgin

22 G. Mendonsa

13 J. Oksanen

19 O. Jukkola

28 M. Gual

3 L. Mata

9 Edmilson

Coach · Rafael Urazbakhtin

Substitutes

4 · D. Kasabulat

8 · O. Baybek

15 · M. Birkurmanov

27 · M. Abish

59 · D. Tashpulatov

81 · I. Bekbolat

82 · S. Kalmurza

17 · A. Tuyakbaev

Zhetysu

Formation not confirmed

88 S. Sicaci

4 D. Kashken

5 R. Orynbassar

3 D. Luna

11 A. Dobay

7 S. Muzhikov

8 A. Adakhadziev

23 A. Baltabekov

17 N. Nurbol

77 N. Anuarbekov

21 M. Zhakipbayev

Coach · Kajrat Nurdauletov

Substitutes

1 · A. Egorov

2 · R. Aslan

9 · S. Abzalov

20 · S. Anuarbek

22 · D. Podymskiy

31 · A. Akhmetov

40 · B. Zhamalov

44 · A. Talgat

50 · D. Larin

55 · Y. Kurmanakhan

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Kairat Almaty

Formation not confirmed

1 T. Anarbekov

20 E. Tapalov

14 A. Martynovich

25 A. Shirobokov

5 L. Kurgin

22 G. Mendonsa

13 J. Oksanen

19 O. Jukkola

28 M. Gual

3 L. Mata

9 Edmilson

Coach · Rafael Urazbakhtin

Substitutes

4 · D. Kasabulat

8 · O. Baybek

15 · M. Birkurmanov

27 · M. Abish

59 · D. Tashpulatov

81 · I. Bekbolat

82 · S. Kalmurza

17 · A. Tuyakbaev

Zhetysu

Formation not confirmed

88 S. Sicaci

4 D. Kashken

5 R. Orynbassar

3 D. Luna

11 A. Dobay

7 S. Muzhikov

8 A. Adakhadziev

23 A. Baltabekov

17 N. Nurbol

77 N. Anuarbekov

21 M. Zhakipbayev

Coach · Kajrat Nurdauletov

Substitutes

1 · A. Egorov

2 · R. Aslan

9 · S. Abzalov

20 · S. Anuarbek

22 · D. Podymskiy

31 · A. Akhmetov

40 · B. Zhamalov

44 · A. Talgat

50 · D. Larin

55 · Y. Kurmanakhan

Our number · kairat almaty winPublished 10 Oct 13:12

78% The market74%

Us78%

~~Market~~74%

We make Kairat Almaty a 78% chance to win. The market has them at 74%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.5–0.6.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · kairat almaty win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 84% to 74% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kairat Almaty win	78%	74%	+3
Draw	15%	16%	−2
Zhetysu win	8%	10%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	60%	59%	+2
Both teams to score	43%	44%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	82%	80%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	38%	38%	0
Kairat Almaty or draw	92%	90%	+2
Kairat Almaty clean sheet	53%	–	–
Zhetysu clean sheet	9%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 13.4%

0123450 4.4 3.0 1 11.0 6.8 2.2 2 13.4 8.5 2.8 3 11.1 7.0 2.3 4 7.0 4.4 5 3.6 2.3

under 2% 5% 12%+Kairat Almaty down, Zhetysu across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,090 Premier League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.1% of games this season, across 206 played.

Head to head

9 previous meetings, 2.44 goals a meeting; 5 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kairat Almaty at home: 2.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Zhetysu away: 0.67 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.50 goals for Kairat Almaty, 0.64 for Zhetysu. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.44

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 9

~~Both scored~~4 of 9

~~Last meetings~~ZHE 0–0 KAI · KAI 5–0 ZHE · ZHE 2–2 KAI · ZHE 1–2 KAI

Form · last six in Premier League

KAIRAT ALMATY

WWWWLL3–1 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 3–0 · 1–4 · 0–1

ZHETYSU

LLLWLL0–4 · 1–4 · 0–3 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 0–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ordabasy	26	+33	61
2	Kairat Almaty	26	+31	57
3	FC Astana	25	+17	48
4	Okzhetpes	26	+6	45
5	Aktobe	26	+7	42
6	Yelimay Semey	25	+2	38
7	FK Tobol Kostanay	26	−2	34
8	Zhenys	26	−6	32
9	Ulytau	26	−8	32
10	Kaspiy	26	−9	29
11	Irtysh	25	−8	26
12	Kyzyl-Zhar	26	−11	25
13	Kaisar	26	−11	24
14	Atyrau	25	−10	23
15	Altay	26	−13	23
16	Zhetysu	26	−18	22