Kairat Almaty v Irtysh prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:43

Kairat Almaty 5–0 Irtysh KAIRAT ALMATY WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Kairat Almaty win~~71%

~~The market said~~71%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.126

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.125

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Kairat Almaty win at 71%.
0′KICK-OFF Kairat Almaty v Irtysh
1′Little has changed for our model: Kairat Almaty 71% before kick-off, 71% now. 0–0 · 71–18–11
16′Kairat Almaty score on 15′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 89–9–3
16′We said Kairat Almaty at 71% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 89%. 1–0 · 89–9–3
16′⚽ GOAL · 15' Kairat Almaty 1–0 Irtysh
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Kairat Almaty win: 71% at kick-off, 89% now
17′Kairat Almaty find the net on 16′. 2–0. 2–0 · 97–2–0
17′We said Kairat Almaty at 71% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 2–0 · 97–2–0
17′⚽ GOAL · 16' Kairat Almaty 2–0 Irtysh
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Kairat Almaty win: 71% at kick-off, 97% now
26′🟨 YELLOW · 26' Irtysh
34′SUBSTITUTION · 31' Irtysh · On: T. Mukhametzhanov · Off: O. A. Falaye Corrected
34′SUBSTITUTION · 31' Irtysh · On: D. Esimbekov · Off: N. Baybosynov Corrected
35′A goal for Kairat Almaty on 35′. 2–0 · 98–2–0
37′We said Kairat Almaty at 71% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
37′3 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 100–0–0
37′⚽ GOAL · 35' Kairat Almaty 3–0 Irtysh · M. Gual (assist Edmilson)
45′HALF-TIME Kairat Almaty 3–0 Irtysh
46′M. Gual scores for Kairat Almaty on 34′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
46′SECOND HALF Kairat Almaty 3–0 Irtysh
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Kairat Almaty · On: M. Abish · Off: G. Mendonsa Corrected
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Irtysh · On: B. Sarnavskyi · Off: M. Rikhard Corrected
49′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Irtysh
55′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Kairat Almaty
63′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Kairat Almaty · On: O. Baybek · Off: A. Martynovich Corrected
65′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Kairat Almaty · On: O. Baybek · Off: Edmilson Corrected
74′Kairat Almaty find the net on 74′. 3–0 · 100–0–0
74′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Kairat Almaty · On: L. Kurgin · Off: L. Mata Corrected
75′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Irtysh · On: A. Nurlan · Off: Leonardo Kalil Corrected
77′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 4–0 · 100–0–0
77′⚽ GOAL · 74' Kairat Almaty 4–0 Irtysh · M. Gual (assist I. Bekbolat)
83′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Irtysh
84′Kairat Almaty find the net on 84′. 5–0. 5–0 · 100–0–0
84′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Kairat Almaty · On: M. Birkurmanov · Off: M. Gual Corrected
84′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Irtysh · On: M. Khalmatov · Off: L. Ramos Corrected
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Kairat Almaty 5–0 Irtysh
85′5 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 5–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Kairat Almaty 5–0 Irtysh
FTKairat Almaty 5–0 Irtysh · Kairat Almaty win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Kairat Almaty are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kairat Almaty 71%, draw 18%, Irtysh 11%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Kairat Almaty v IrtyshBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Kairat Almaty win71%

Draw18%

Irtysh win11%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 23

VenueAlmaty Central Stadium

RefereeS. Nozhenko

Line-ups

Kairat Almaty

4-2-3-1

Irtysh

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kairat Almaty

Irtysh

3Days since last match4

Last match: 15 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference League

Last match: 14 Oct · the Kazakh Premier League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Kairat Almaty	26	+33	60
13	Irtysh	27	−11	26

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Kairat Almaty

4-2-3-1

1 T. Anarbekov

20 E. Tapalov

14 A. Martynovich

25 A. Shirobokov

3 L. Mata

22 G. Mendonsa

13 J. Oksanen

17 A. Tuyakbaev

28 M. Gual

19 O. Jukkola

9 Edmilson

Coach · Rafael Urazbakhtin

Substitutes

4 · D. Kasabulat

5 · L. Kurgin

8 · O. Baybek

15 · M. Birkurmanov

24 · A. Mrynskiy

27 · M. Abish

59 · D. Tashpulatov

81 · I. Bekbolat

82 · S. Kalmurza

Irtysh

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Rikhard

5 B. Toleuov

26 M. Mbodj

4 D. Slambekov

66 S. Malikaydar

35 L. Ramos

56 R. Yudenkov

12 R. Karimov

13 N. Baybosynov

9 Leonardo Kalil

32 O. A. Falaye

Coach · –

Substitutes

7 · T. Mukhametzhanov

8 · D. Esimbekov

15 · D. Nyrkov

17 · S. Opeh

24 · M. Khalmatov

25 · M. Jevtic

29 · B. Sarnavskyi

77 · A. Nurlan

97 · J. Poe

Our number · kairat almaty winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 16 Oct 03:53 · locked at kick-off

71% The market71%

Us71%

~~Market~~71%

We make Kairat Almaty a 71% chance to win. The market has them at 71%. We are level with the market. The model expects 2.2–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kairat Almaty v Irtysh~~2.17 – 0.69

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 30 Aug~~W4 D0 L2 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 60 v 26~~2 v 13

~~The market · Kairat Almaty win~~71% · ours 71%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Kairat Almaty win The market, margin stripped

Published at 72%, 71% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 71% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kairat Almaty win	71%	71%	0
Draw	18%	18%	0
Irtysh win	11%	10%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	54%	58%	−4
Both teams to score	44%	47%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	77%	79%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	32%	38%	−6
Kairat Almaty or draw	89%	90%	−1
Kairat Almaty clean sheet	50%	–	–
Irtysh clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 13.3%

0123450 5.7 4.3 1 12.7 8.3 3.0 2 13.3 9.1 3.2 3 9.6 6.6 2.3 4 5.3 3.6 5 2.4

under 2% 5% 12%+Kairat Almaty down, Irtysh across0–5 goals a side shown (97.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,104 Premier League matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.1% of games this season, across 220 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2025 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kairat Almaty at home: 2.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Irtysh away: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.17 goals for Kairat Almaty, 0.69 for Irtysh. Most likely score 2–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 18 Oct 13:34. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~IRT 0–1 KAI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 30 Aug

KAIRAT ALMATY

WWWLLW2–0 · 3–0 · 3–0 · 1–4 · 0–1 · 1–0

IRTYSH

WLWWLL2–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 0–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ordabasy	27	+35	64
2	Kairat Almaty	26	+33	60
3	FC Astana	26	+16	48
4	Okzhetpes	28	+5	48
5	Aktobe	28	+7	45
6	Yelimay Semey	27	+1	41
7	FK Tobol Kostanay	28	+1	40
8	Ulytau	27	−6	35
9	Kaspiy	27	−8	32
10	Zhenys	28	−9	32
11	Kyzyl-Zhar	28	−10	28
12	Atyrau	26	−7	26
13	Irtysh	27	−11	26
14	Zhetysu	28	−18	25
15	Kaisar	28	−15	24
16	Altay	27	−14	23