Kairat Almaty v Altay prediction · Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Kairat AlmatyDrawAltay

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 10:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Kairat Almaty 74%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Kairat Almaty are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kairat Almaty 74%, draw 16%, Altay 10%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Kairat Almaty v AltayBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Kairat Almaty win74%

Draw16%

Altay win10%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 10:00

RoundMatchday 30

VenueAlmaty Central Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kairat Almaty

Altay

9Days since last match13

Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference League

Last match: 18 Oct · the Kazakh Premier League

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Kairat Almaty	28	+37	63
13	Altay	28	−11	26

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kairat almaty winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

74% The market–

Us74%

We make Kairat Almaty a 74% chance to win. The model expects 2.4–0.7, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kairat Almaty v Altay~~2.36 – 0.70

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 29 Aug~~W4 D0 L2 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 63 v 26~~2 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kairat Almaty win	74%	–	–
Draw	16%	–	–
Altay win	10%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	59%	–	–
Both teams to score	45%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	80%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	36%	–	–
Kairat Almaty or draw	90%	–	–
Kairat Almaty clean sheet	50%	–	–
Altay clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 13.0%

0123450 4.8 3.5 1 11.4 7.6 2.7 2 13.0 8.9 3.1 3 10.1 7.0 2.4 4 6.0 4.1 5 2.9

under 2% 5% 12%+Kairat Almaty down, Altay across0–5 goals a side shown (96.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,112 Premier League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 49.1% of games this season, across 228 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2024 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kairat Almaty at home: 2.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Altay away: 1.17 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.36 goals for Kairat Almaty, 0.70 for Altay. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~ALT 0–1 KAI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 29 Aug

KAIRAT ALMATY

WWLLWW3–0 · 3–0 · 1–4 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 5–0

ALTAY

LWWLLD0–1 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ordabasy	29	+38	68
2	Kairat Almaty	28	+37	63
3	FC Astana	28	+17	52
4	Okzhetpes	29	+8	51
5	Aktobe	28	+7	45
6	Yelimay Semey	28	+2	44
7	FK Tobol Kostanay	29	+1	41
8	Ulytau	29	−8	35
9	Zhenys	29	−9	33
10	Kaspiy	29	−11	33
11	Kyzyl-Zhar	29	−12	30
12	Atyrau	28	−10	27
13	Altay	28	−11	26
14	Irtysh	28	−16	26
15	Zhetysu	29	−18	26
16	Kaisar	28	−15	24