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Irtysh v Kyzyl-Zhar

Irtysh

0–2Full time

Kyzyl-Zhar

Premier League · SAT 10 OCT · Centralnyj Stadion

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 13:46

Irtysh 0–2 Kyzyl-Zhar IRTYSH WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Irtysh win~~41%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.725

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.829

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Irtysh win at 41%.
1′Much as we predicted: Irtysh was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 41–28–31
1′KICK-OFF Irtysh v Kyzyl-Zhar
9′⚽ GOAL · 9' Irtysh 0–1 Kyzyl-Zhar
12′Kyzyl-Zhar ahead on 9′ through A. Abiken. 0–1. 0–1 · 16–23–61
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 12' Irtysh win: 41% at kick-off, 16% now
12′THE CALL SWINGS · 12' Kyzyl-Zhar win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Irtysh win 16%)
22′We said Irtysh at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–24–62
37′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Irtysh
38′Goals are coming at about the 2.3 we expected. 0–1 · 10–24–66
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Irtysh win: 41% at kick-off, 10% now
45′SECOND HALF Irtysh 0–1 Kyzyl-Zhar
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Kyzyl-Zhar · On: A. Sokolenko · Off: A. Cheredinov
53′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Irtysh
57′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Irtysh · On: N. Baybosynov · Off: D. Nyrkov
70′⚽ GOAL · 71' Irtysh 0–1 Kyzyl-Zhar
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Irtysh 0–2 Kyzyl-Zhar · A. Abiken
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Irtysh 0–2 Kyzyl-Zhar · A. Abiken
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Irtysh · On: M. Khalmatov · Off: R. Yudenkov
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Irtysh · On: J. Poe · Off: D. Esimbekov
77′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Irtysh
79′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Irtysh
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Kyzyl-Zhar · On: E. Beugre · Off: S. Bahoken
83′⚽ GOAL · 84' Irtysh 0–2 Kyzyl-Zhar
89′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Kyzyl-Zhar · On: Y. Pertsukh · Off: E. Makarenko
93′SUBSTITUTION · 93' Kyzyl-Zhar · On: D. Serikuly · Off: N. Gubarev
93′SUBSTITUTION · 93' Kyzyl-Zhar · On: M. Eleukin · Off: L. Latifi
95′🟨 YELLOW · 96' Kyzyl-Zhar
FTFULL TIME Irtysh 0–2 Kyzyl-Zhar
FTIrtysh 0–2 Kyzyl-Zhar · Irtysh win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Irtysh win41%

Draw28%

Kyzyl-Zhar win31%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 11:00

Venue · Centralnyj Stadion

Referee · A. Tasybaev

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Irtysh

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Rikhard

5 B. Toleuov

26 M. Mbodj

56 R. Yudenkov

4 D. Slambekov

8 D. Esimbekov

15 D. Nyrkov

35 L. Ramos

6 Y. Shimamura

7 T. Mukhametzhanov

9 Leonardo Kalil

Coach · –

Substitutes

13 · N. Baybosynov

14 · V. Raskatov

17 · S. Opeh

21 · D. Berdibek

24 · M. Khalmatov

25 · M. Jevtic

29 · B. Sarnavskyi

31 · E. Rakhmetulla

32 · O. A. Falaye

40 · A. Kanat

77 · A. Nurlan

97 · J. Poe

Kyzyl-Zhar

Formation not confirmed

1 D. Celeadnic

11 A. Cheredinov

23 N. Piscevic

28 S. Urosevic

27 N. Gubarev

8 E. Makarenko

55 O. Noyok

96 A. Abiken

10 J. Bjartalid

13 S. Bahoken

77 L. Latifi

Coach · Milic Curcic

Substitutes

7 · T. Muldinov

17 · M. Eleukin

19 · D. Serikuly

29 · G. Loginovsky

39 · S. Erniyazov

53 · D. Talyspayev

71 · A. Sokolenko

78 · S. Zhetpisbay

79 · G. Valgushev

88 · Y. Pertsukh

90 · A. Kenzhadoev

99 · E. Beugre

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Irtysh

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Rikhard

5 B. Toleuov

26 M. Mbodj

56 R. Yudenkov

4 D. Slambekov

8 D. Esimbekov

15 D. Nyrkov

35 L. Ramos

6 Y. Shimamura

7 T. Mukhametzhanov

9 Leonardo Kalil

Coach · –

Substitutes

13 · N. Baybosynov

14 · V. Raskatov

17 · S. Opeh

21 · D. Berdibek

24 · M. Khalmatov

25 · M. Jevtic

29 · B. Sarnavskyi

31 · E. Rakhmetulla

32 · O. A. Falaye

40 · A. Kanat

77 · A. Nurlan

97 · J. Poe

Kyzyl-Zhar

Formation not confirmed

1 D. Celeadnic

11 A. Cheredinov

23 N. Piscevic

28 S. Urosevic

27 N. Gubarev

8 E. Makarenko

55 O. Noyok

96 A. Abiken

10 J. Bjartalid

13 S. Bahoken

77 L. Latifi

Coach · Milic Curcic

Substitutes

7 · T. Muldinov

17 · M. Eleukin

19 · D. Serikuly

29 · G. Loginovsky

39 · S. Erniyazov

53 · D. Talyspayev

71 · A. Sokolenko

78 · S. Zhetpisbay

79 · G. Valgushev

88 · Y. Pertsukh

90 · A. Kenzhadoev

99 · E. Beugre

Our number · irtysh winPublished 10 Oct 11:13

41% The market46%

Us41%

~~Market~~46%

We make Irtysh a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · irtysh win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 54% to 46% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Irtysh win	41%	46%	−5
Draw	28%	27%	0
Kyzyl-Zhar win	31%	26%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	40%	48%	−8
Both teams to score	46%	52%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	66%	71%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	20%	28%	−8
Irtysh or draw	69%	74%	−4
Irtysh clean sheet	36%	–	–
Kyzyl-Zhar clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.9%

0123450 10.1 10.8 5.5 1 12.9 12.8 6.7 2.4 2 7.9 8.1 4.2 3 3.3 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Irtysh down, Kyzyl-Zhar across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,090 Premier League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.1% of games this season, across 206 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 4.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Irtysh at home: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Kyzyl-Zhar away: 0.83 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.25 goals for Irtysh, 1.04 for Kyzyl-Zhar. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~KYZ 2–2 IRT

Form · last six in Premier League

IRTYSH

LLWLWW1–3 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 2–1

KYZYL-ZHAR

DDLLLD2–2 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ordabasy	26	+33	61
2	Kairat Almaty	26	+31	57
3	FC Astana	25	+17	48
4	Okzhetpes	26	+6	45
5	Aktobe	26	+7	42
6	Yelimay Semey	25	+2	38
7	FK Tobol Kostanay	26	−2	34
8	Zhenys	26	−6	32
9	Ulytau	26	−8	32
10	Kaspiy	26	−9	29
11	Irtysh	25	−8	26
12	Kyzyl-Zhar	26	−11	25
13	Kaisar	26	−11	24
14	Atyrau	25	−10	23
15	Altay	26	−13	23
16	Zhetysu	26	−18	22